MEOS Q4 2016

Sep 12, 2016Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes514 views

UK employers intend to recruit in the coming months. However, bellwether sectors signal trouble ahead as finance and construction fall. Is the jobs market skating on thin ice? Find out more in the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

Manpower
Employment
Outlook Survey
Q4 2016
Monday, September 12, 2016

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 2
MEOS Q4 2016 Summary
• At the national level, no news is the big news: the NEO stays on +5 – 9
in 10 are planning to hold headcounts flat
• But there are signs all is not well beneath the surface: Key sectors like
business and finance services, utilities and construction are all down four
points on the quarter
• Trouble in the City: Business and finance services (+5) is at its lowest level
in over four years. Within that, the finance subcategory is at 0, a seven point
quarterly fall
• Public sector sentiment in the red: Hiring intentions in the public sector
have dropped five points, from +1 last quarter to -4 today –its lowest level in
four years
• More positively, retail, wholesale and hospitality has bounced back: It’s
risen from +3 to +6 this quarter, backed up by positive consumer spending
data.

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-1
-3
-6
-5
-1
1 1 1 1
2 2
3
1
0
2 2
3
6 6
5
7
5
7 7 7
6 6 6
5
7
6
5 5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2016
MEOS: Since 4Q 2008

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 4
Size of company breakdown
• Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions
• Small businesses down 3 points
• Micro businesses remain least optimistic
11
12
11
1
5
11
12
8
1
5
Large
Medium
Small
Micro
National Q4 '16 Q3 '16 n/c
n/c
-3
n/c
n/c
QoQ change

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 5
Industry sector breakdown
-1
3
3
7
6
-3
9
6
9
5
7
2
6
3
4
0
5
4
5
5
Q4 '16
Q3 '16
QoQ change
National
Utilities
Manufacturing
Finance & Business Services
Mining & Quarrying
Transport, Storage and
Communications
Construction
Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants &
Hotels
Public & Social
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
n/c
-4
-2
-4
+3
-2
-4
+3
-1
+8

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 6
Public/private sector breakdown
• Private sector hiring remains firm
• Public sector plummeted
2
6
1
5
-1
6
-4
5
Q4 '16
Q3 '16
n/c
-5
n/c
-3
QoQ change
*Data not seasonally adjusted
National
Public
Private
Not For Profit*

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 7
Regions and nations breakdown
2
4
9
1
1
10
7
2
8
9
5
11
5
0
-2
5
-2
3
4
8
3
7
9
6
5
5
Q4 '16
Q3 '16
QoQ change
National
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
East
South East
London
Wales
South West
Yorkshire & the Humber
North East
Northern Ireland
Scotland
n/c
-6
+1
n/c
-1
+1
+1
-6
+2
-3
-4
-6
-2

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016
ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 8
UK employment intention heat map: Q4 2016

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for Q1 2017 found: - The national employment outlook increased two points to +7, the most optimistic outlook in three years. - Optimism was highest for construction and utilities firms, with outlooks rising to 9% and 13% respectively. - Private sector hiring expectations increased to the fastest rate in three years at +8%, while public sector outlook remained negative. - Finance sector optimism declined to -3, its lowest level in two and a half years, reflecting continued signs of post-Brexit uncertainty in the industry.

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MEOS Q4 2016

1. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2016 Monday, September 12, 2016

2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 2 MEOS Q4 2016 Summary • At the national level, no news is the big news: the NEO stays on +5 – 9 in 10 are planning to hold headcounts flat • But there are signs all is not well beneath the surface: Key sectors like business and finance services, utilities and construction are all down four points on the quarter • Trouble in the City: Business and finance services (+5) is at its lowest level in over four years. Within that, the finance subcategory is at 0, a seven point quarterly fall • Public sector sentiment in the red: Hiring intentions in the public sector have dropped five points, from +1 last quarter to -4 today –its lowest level in four years • More positively, retail, wholesale and hospitality has bounced back: It’s risen from +3 to +6 this quarter, backed up by positive consumer spending data.

3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -1 -3 -6 -5 -1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 6 6 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 5 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2016 MEOS: Since 4Q 2008

4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 4 Size of company breakdown • Companies of all sizes have positive hiring intentions • Small businesses down 3 points • Micro businesses remain least optimistic 11 12 11 1 5 11 12 8 1 5 Large Medium Small Micro National Q4 '16 Q3 '16 n/c n/c -3 n/c n/c QoQ change

5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 5 Industry sector breakdown -1 3 3 7 6 -3 9 6 9 5 7 2 6 3 4 0 5 4 5 5 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 QoQ change National Utilities Manufacturing Finance & Business Services Mining & Quarrying Transport, Storage and Communications Construction Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Public & Social Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing n/c -4 -2 -4 +3 -2 -4 +3 -1 +8

6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 6 Public/private sector breakdown • Private sector hiring remains firm • Public sector plummeted 2 6 1 5 -1 6 -4 5 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 n/c -5 n/c -3 QoQ change *Data not seasonally adjusted National Public Private Not For Profit*

7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 7 Regions and nations breakdown 2 4 9 1 1 10 7 2 8 9 5 11 5 0 -2 5 -2 3 4 8 3 7 9 6 5 5 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 QoQ change National West Midlands North West East Midlands East South East London Wales South West Yorkshire & the Humber North East Northern Ireland Scotland n/c -6 +1 n/c -1 +1 +1 -6 +2 -3 -4 -6 -2

8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q4 2016 ManpowerGroup Monday, September 12, 2016 8 UK employment intention heat map: Q4 2016

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