MEOS Q1 2018 results summary
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An overview of the key results from the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey asking UK employers whether they plan to increase, decrease or make no changes to the size of their workforce over the coming quarter.
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MEOS Q1 2018 results summary
- 1. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 Tuesday, December 12, 2017
- 2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 2 MEOS Q1 2018 Summary This is the weakest quarterly outlook in five years. Post-budget and with crunch time for Brexit negotiations looming, there are signs our stellar jobs market is finally cooling off. But its hard to see whats driving that downward shift. Only one of the nine sectors is below the national outlook Mining and Quarrying on +2 (and that sector is one of the smallest contributors to the index). All other sectors are at or above the +4 national outlook. London and the South East are particularly hard hit. The capital is 0, its least optimistic outlook in four years, while the South East is on +3, its lowest level since the end of 2016. London is also bottom of the regional league table this time. Transport, storage and comms is delivering the goods. The sector is up 10 points to +12, its highest level since Q2, 2013. It is the most optimistic sector this quarter.
- 3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 3 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 National NEO 2017 2018 MEOS: Since Q1 2010
- 4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 4 12 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 12 9 7 9 2 3 5 4 -4 1Q '18 4Q '17 +10 -4 -1 0 -3 +4 +2 -1 0 +6 TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMS CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING ELECTRICITY, GAS, WATER BUSINESS SERVICES & FINANCE AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING PUBLIC & SOCIAL NATIONAL WHOLESALE & RETAIL, RESTAURANT & HOTELS MINING & QUARRYING Outlook by sector QoQ change
- 5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 5 Outlook by company size 3 11 11 16 5 1Q '18 4Q '17 4 -1 -1 +3 -3 -1 QoQ change NATIONAL LARGE MEDIUM SMALL MICRO 15 14 8 2
- 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 6 Public sector hiring confidence has decreased 2 6 5 12 0 6 4 7 1Q '18 4Q '17 -3 -1 0 -2 QoQ change NOT FOR PROFIT* NATIONAL PRIVATE PUBLIC
- 7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 7 Regions and nations summary East Midlands and West Midlands are the most bullish regions heading into 2018. The West Midlands is on +12, its most positive outlook in three years, while the East Midlands is on +11 its strongest reading in over a year. Yorkshire and the Humber has built on a positive 2017 and is up one point to +8. The East of England is also on +8, a three-point fall on the quarter and four-point annual fall. The North East is up four points to +6, its most optimistic level since Q1, 2017. However, the North West is down to +3, a two-point quarterly fall. The South West reports a one-point fall from +6 to +5, but remains broadly in line with its recent trend data. Across the nations, Wales is on +7, its best start to a year since 2013 and four-point quarterly rise. Scotland is also slightly above the national outlook on +5, though it is down a point on Q4, 2017. After a strong end to 2017, Northern Ireland is down three points on +4.
- 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, December 12, 2017 8 Regions and nations breakdown 3 5 10 5 7 6 6 2 3 7 11 5 7 0 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 11 12 1Q '18 4Q '17 QoQ change WEST MIDLANDS EAST MIDLANDS EAST YORKS AND HUMBER WALES NORTH EAST SCOTLAND SOUTH WEST NORTTHERN IRELAND NATIONAL SOUTH EAST NORTH WEST LONDON +5 +6 -3 +1 +4 +4 -1 -1 -3 -1 -7 -2 -3
Editor's Notes
- #3: Lets look at the meos highlights this time Nationally, weve ticked up marginally to +6% after two qs at +5 Why? In no small part its down to the public sector, which has swung from -2 to +2, its sharpest increase in two years off the back of the weak Tory performance in the election and the reduced focus on austerity. Construction is also storming along. Why? High demand
- #4: This is an auspicious MEOS. For the first time since 2014, we have a number other than 5 or 6. The national NEO is +4, a fall of one point on the previous quarter and the lowest headline outlook figure since 2012. The raw data shows 7% of employers are looking to hire, 3% looking to reduce head count and 88% to retain the same staffing levels. The remaining 2% are unsure.
- #5: Transport storage and comms has leaped to the top of the table. Manufacturing continues to do well. Finance and biz services have taken a knock
- #6: This is the usual pattern we see with MEOS Very little to report in terms of employers of other sizes.
- #7: Public sector is a significant focus of the release. Slipped from +2 to 0 Private sector confidence remains steady
- #8: Most optimistic