Russia in Syria: Military Buildup and Implications
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The document outlines Russia's military buildup in Syria, aimed at supporting the Assad regime and increasing Russian influence in the region while diverting attention from domestic issues. It details the types of military assets deployed, their potential missions, and the expected effects on the ongoing conflict, including enhanced capabilities and morale for Syrian forces. The conclusion emphasizes the significant impact this buildup could have on the war's direction and political landscape.
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Russia in Syria: Military Buildup and Implications
- 1. Russia in Syria Military Buildup and Implications Jeffrey White @JeffWhite25 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1
- 2. Reasons Support the regime Bolster Russian influence on Syrian situation Increase Russian role in region Fight terrorism Divert attention from domestic troubles Challenge the U.S. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 2
- 3. Continuing Build-up Sea bridge: Landing ships, commercial vessels Air bridge: An-124/Condor, IL62, Tu- 154, and IL-76 RU-IR-IZ-SY route Masked Facilities Expansion of Basel al- Assad Airport Helicopter base at Istamo Ports of Latakia and Tartus The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 3 An-124/Condor Inbound Latakia Alligator Class Large Landing Ship Photo courtesy of Y旦r端k I脹k, ACTECON International Consulting
- 4. Order of Battle Air 4 x Su-30 SM/Flanker-C 12 x Su-24/Flanker 12 x Su-25/Frogfoot Attack and transport helos Yakovlev Pchela-1T Drones IL-20/Coot intelligence collector Possible ABN CP Ground Elements 810th Naval Infantry Brigade Possible elements 363rd Naval Infantry Brigade T-90 tanks BTR-80 type APCs Field Artillery Several thousand troops Air Defense SA-22/Greyhound Presumed C2 structure The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 4 Su-24/Fencer SA-22/Greyhound
- 5. Potential Missions Air Reconnaissance Close air support Strike Interdiction Airborne C2 Ground Advising Embedding Security Defense Offense SF The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 5 Su-25/Frogfoot
- 6. Potential Operational Areas Selective employment Key targets Priority enemies Where regime forces/positions are threatened Tailored packages Key areas Northern Latakia Northern Hama Damascus region Aleppo Eastern Homs The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 6
- 7. Potential Effects on the War Direct effects: Provide decisive edge on select battlefields Increase the ability of regime forces to hold/take key positions and territory Increase the attrition of opposition forces Restore the regimes waning offensive capabilities. Indirect effects: Raise the combat effectiveness of regime forces Raise the morale of regime forces Depress the morale of opposition forces Rally Jihadist forces The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 7
- 8. Conclusions Quite capable joint/combined arms force Russian force tailored for regime support mission Intended to fight, but cannot fight everywhere at once Can be expanded with air and sea bridge capabilities Can have significant effects on the battlefield Can give Russia a direct role in wars direction Can have significant political effects The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 8