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20151205japanr
- 2. はじめにお断り 製薬会社の 回し者では あ り ま せ ん 今日の内容は 今までになく 真 面 目 で す
- 3. 感染症の数理モデル：SIR model Susceptible Infected Recovered p time
- 4. 感染症の数理モデル：ワクチン Susceptible Infected Recovered )1( vp ? time Vaccination
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- 6. R 的実装 j i 1?i 1?i 1?j 1?j ],[ ji]1,[ ?ji ]1,[ ?ji ],1[ ji ?]1,1[ ?? ji ]1,1[ ?? ji ],1[ ji ?]1,1[ ?? ji ]1,1[ ?? ji )1( vp ? p の感染者は周囲8方向に sample関数で感染させる],[ ji ntt ?
- 7. R 的ベクトル実装 j i 1?i 1?i 1?j 1?j ])1([ ijI ??])2([ ijI ?? ][ iIj ? ]1)1([ ??? ijI]1)2([ ??? ijI ]1[ ??iIj ]1)1([ ??? ijI]1)2([ ??? ijI ]1[ ??iIj 行列へのアクセスは でも可能 （行列はもともとベクトル） ])1([ ijI ?? ntt ?
- 8. Simulation 100*100 の行列, 感染期間 3 感染効率 0.7, ワクチン効率 0.9 接種率 0.95 接種率 0.75 0tt ?
- 9. Simulation 100*100 の行列, 感染期間 3 感染効率 0.7, ワクチン効率 0.9 接種率 0.95 接種率 0.75 ntt ?
- 10. Simulation 100*100 の行列, 感染期間 3 感染効率 0.7, ワクチン効率 0.9 接種率 0.95 接種率 0.75 endtt ?
- 13. 経過中に 接種率0.95接種率0.75 外来は確実に パ ン ク す る
- 14. まとめ R で数理モデルシミュレーションができる ワクチンはたくさん接種してくれると 接種しなかった人も予防できる ワクチンはたくさん接種しないと 接種した人も感染する Let’s try ! 人の移動，潜伏期間，再発，医療経済…