Argentina_M&M

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Macri comes from an economic class that arose after WWII in Argentina and his family had strong interests in construction and automobiles. The current administration can be seen as a coalition unwilling to accept the dominance of the Kirchnerite wing of the Peronist party. The government takes a more orthodox economic approach compared to previous administrations. Argentina has significant mineral resources like lithium, gold, silver, and uranium. Major mining companies are ramping up projects for commercial production of lithium and potash. The mining market fell into obscurity during Kirchner's long rule but has potential to reemerge as foreign investment and listings on the Argentine stock exchange return.

Macri comes from the economic class that arose under Peron and subsequent
military governments after the war.
The family were very strong in construction and automobiles (having
controlled Sevel, a JV with Fiat which was for a long time one of the largest
car manufacturers in Argentina).
The family business was regarded as being part of the “patria contratista”
with other leading economic groups.
NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

In many ways the current administration can be seen as a Coalition of the
Unwilling, essentially unwilling to accept the hegemony of the Kirchnerite
rump of the PJ (Peronist Party) that had dominated Argentine politics since
the economic debacle of 2001.
As such it was a broad grouping that threw support behind Macri, ranging
from the Left across to the moderate Right. This is described as “Centre-
Right” but that may be a misnomer as it’s a better description of President
himself rather than of his camp followers.
The government is more of a “movement” than a “party”, per se.
Economic approach is orthodox and in that respect somewhat “retro”. Harks
back to 1990s nostrums. Exchange rates and controls were liberated in early
days to general acclaim but since then brutal hikes in utility charges have been
poorly executed and received by the public.
COALITION OF THE UNWILLING?

The Menem administration in the 1990s reformed the mining code passing
power from the Federal government (which had pretty much stifled mining
since the 1940s) to the provinces.
The Federal government was henceforth not involved in mining approvals but
was involved on currency matters and foreign sourcing of supplies. The
Federal tax department (AFIP) was also vigilant for transfer-pricing activities.
Provinces that have been notably troublesome on mining have been Mendoza,
Chubut, La Rioja (flipflopping) and La Pampa.
CLARIFICATIONS ON ARGENTINE MINING

Copper
Lithium
Gold
Silver
Uranium
Coal (scarce and poor quality)
Iron Ore (poor quality)
Potentialities
Tin
Rare Earths
Manganese (has been mined in the
past)
Antimony
MINERAL RESOURCES - A TREASURE CHEST?

Orocobre (Olaroz) and Sentient (Rincon) are ramping towards commercial
production in the Lithium space
Agua Rica (Yamana)
Rio Colorado Potash (Vale)
La Navidad (Pan American Silver)
Los Azules (McEwen Mining)
San Jorge (Aterra Group)
IN THE PIPELINE

Once one of the go-go markets of the emerging markets’ fraternity, it fell into
obscurity during the long years in which investability was perceived to have
been compromised by Kirchnerite policies.
Foreign and domestic investors fled the market and the AFJPs (pension funds)
were nationalised, removing much of the liquidity and investor base.
Market has not had any listed mining stocks since before WW2.
THE BOLSA REDUX?

Government will need to get back in touch with its middle class base
No danger of mining passing back to Federal oversight
Squeeze on financial largesse to provinces will probably make the recalcitrant
“see the light”
Fiscal situation should improve at national level thus less need to “milk
mining” or reinstate exchange controls
Sporadic “green” outbreaks/scares
Probable appearance of one or more mining listings on the local Bolsa
Argentina will start to appear “easy” compared to the rising frustration with
the Chilean alternative or the deeply troubled Brazil
FUTUROLOGY

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Argentina_M&M

1. Once More Into the Breach.. ARGENTINA

2. Macri comes from the economic class that arose under Peron and subsequent military governments after the war. The family were very strong in construction and automobiles (having controlled Sevel, a JV with Fiat which was for a long time one of the largest car manufacturers in Argentina). The family business was regarded as being part of the “patria contratista” with other leading economic groups. NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

3. In many ways the current administration can be seen as a Coalition of the Unwilling, essentially unwilling to accept the hegemony of the Kirchnerite rump of the PJ (Peronist Party) that had dominated Argentine politics since the economic debacle of 2001. As such it was a broad grouping that threw support behind Macri, ranging from the Left across to the moderate Right. This is described as “Centre- Right” but that may be a misnomer as it’s a better description of President himself rather than of his camp followers. The government is more of a “movement” than a “party”, per se. Economic approach is orthodox and in that respect somewhat “retro”. Harks back to 1990s nostrums. Exchange rates and controls were liberated in early days to general acclaim but since then brutal hikes in utility charges have been poorly executed and received by the public. COALITION OF THE UNWILLING?

4. The Menem administration in the 1990s reformed the mining code passing power from the Federal government (which had pretty much stifled mining since the 1940s) to the provinces. The Federal government was henceforth not involved in mining approvals but was involved on currency matters and foreign sourcing of supplies. The Federal tax department (AFIP) was also vigilant for transfer-pricing activities. Provinces that have been notably troublesome on mining have been Mendoza, Chubut, La Rioja (flipflopping) and La Pampa. CLARIFICATIONS ON ARGENTINE MINING

5. Copper Lithium Gold Silver Uranium Coal (scarce and poor quality) Iron Ore (poor quality) Potentialities Tin Rare Earths Manganese (has been mined in the past) Antimony MINERAL RESOURCES - A TREASURE CHEST?

6. Orocobre (Olaroz) and Sentient (Rincon) are ramping towards commercial production in the Lithium space Agua Rica (Yamana) Rio Colorado Potash (Vale) La Navidad (Pan American Silver) Los Azules (McEwen Mining) San Jorge (Aterra Group) IN THE PIPELINE

7. Once one of the go-go markets of the emerging markets’ fraternity, it fell into obscurity during the long years in which investability was perceived to have been compromised by Kirchnerite policies. Foreign and domestic investors fled the market and the AFJPs (pension funds) were nationalised, removing much of the liquidity and investor base. Market has not had any listed mining stocks since before WW2. THE BOLSA REDUX?

8. Government will need to get back in touch with its middle class base No danger of mining passing back to Federal oversight Squeeze on financial largesse to provinces will probably make the recalcitrant “see the light” Fiscal situation should improve at national level thus less need to “milk mining” or reinstate exchange controls Sporadic “green” outbreaks/scares Probable appearance of one or more mining listings on the local Bolsa Argentina will start to appear “easy” compared to the rising frustration with the Chilean alternative or the deeply troubled Brazil FUTUROLOGY

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