Bell mini conference RDG.pptx
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1) The document discusses Marian Kupczynski's paper on whether John Bell would choose contextuality or nonlocality today based on graphical models representing random variables. 2) It presents a graphical model showing source hidden variables, context dependent instrument hidden variables, and Alice and Bob's outcome variables that may be correlated. 3) It notes that assuming the instrument hidden variables are uncorrelated leads to the CHSH inequality holding, while allowing them to be correlated allows any four joint probability distributions, and discusses Kupczynski's consideration of the detection loophole.
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Lucia de Berk and Lucy Letby, a comparison focussing on statistics
Lucia de Berk and Lucy Letby, a comparison focussing on statisticsRichard Gill
油
Twenty minute talk at Royal Statistical Society, section Statistics and Law, 19 September 2024. I focus on statistical issues: the unexpected spike, the impossible coincidenceStatistical issues in serial killer nurse cases
Statistical issues in serial killer nurse casesRichard Gill
油
Suspicions about medical murder often arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular professional. 油The RSS has published a report outlining major concerns about use of this kind of evidence in a criminal investigation: first, over the analysis and interpretation of such data, and secondly over whether it can be guaranteed that the data have been compiled in an objective and unbiased manner.油in this conference talk I discuss two cases: the famous case of Lucia de Berk (Netherlands) and the current case of Lucy Letby (UK)Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlands
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlandsRichard Gill
油
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.Richard's entangled aventures in wonderland
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderlandRichard Gill
油
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.A tale of two Lucys - Delft lecture - March 4, 2024
A tale of two Lucys - Delft lecture - March 4, 2024Richard Gill
油
TUDelft Seminar Probability & Statistics, 4 March 2024
15:45 T/M 16:45 - LOCATION: LECTURE HALL D@TA
Lucia de Berk, a Dutch nurse, was arrested in 2001, and tried and convicted of serial murder of patients in her care. At a lower court the only hard evidence against her was the result of a probability calculation: the chance that she was present at so many suspicious deaths and collapses in the hospitals where she had worked was 1 in 342 million. During appeal proceedings at a higher court, the prosecution shifted gears and gave the impression that there was now hard evidence that she had killed one baby. Having established that she was a killer and a liar (she claimed innocence) it was not difficult to pin another 9 deaths and collapses on her. No statistics were needed any more. In 2005 the conviction was confirmed by the supreme court. But at the same time, some whistleblowers started getting attention from the media. A long fight for the hearts and minds of the public, and a long fight to have the case reopened (without any new evidence - only new scientific interpretation of existing evidence) began and ended in 2010 with Lucias complete exoneration. A number of statisticians played a big role in that fight. The idea that the conviction was purely based on objective scientific evidence was actually an illusion. This needed to be explained to journalists & to the public. And the judiciary needed to be convinced that something had to be done about it.Lucy Letby, an English nurse, was arrested in 2020 for murder of a large number of babies at a hospital in Chester, UK, in Jan 2015-June 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and took 10 months. She was convicted and given a whole life sentence in 2023.In my opinion, the similarities between the two cases are horrific. Again there is statistical evidence: a cluster of unexplained bad events, and Lucy was there every time; there is apparently irrefutable scientific evidence for two babies; and just like with Lucia de Berk, there are some weird personal and private writings which can be construed as a confession. 油For many reasons, the chances of a fair retrial for Lucy Letby are very thin indeed, but I am convinced she is innocent and that her trial was grossly unfair.liverpool_2024
liverpool_2024Richard Gill
油
Optimal statistical analysis of Bell experiments
Richard D Gill (Mathematical Institute, Leiden University)
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics went to Clauser, Horne and Zeilinger 'for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science. I played a modest part in the process which led up to that prize by contributing statistical methodology used in four decisive loophole free" experiments of 2020. What I contributed was quite simply the idea of using randomisation in order to get guaranteed statistical validity, and martingale methods which allowed the experimenters to rule out the notion that an apparent violation of Bells inequality could simply be due to time trends in physical parameters over the course of an experiment which takes days to complete (confounding of treatment with time). Most recently I have studied some simple methods to reduce noise in the usual ad hoc estimators of the four correlations which figure in Bells inequality. Do not fear: the statistical model is very simple, no knowledge of quantum mechanics is needed to understand the statistical issues. The talk is about the statistical analysis of four 2x2 tables.
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-9909/3/2/23A tale of two Lucies (long version)
A tale of two Lucies (long version)Richard Gill
油
Subtitle: "Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse"
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a full life sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letbys lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in Science about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-stats
https://www.maths.lu.se/kalendarium/?evenemang=statistics-seminar-statistical-issues-investigation-suspected-serial-killer-nurse-richard-gill
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxmFLKTlim8A tale of two Lucies.pdf
A tale of two Lucies.pdfRichard Gill
油
The RSS has published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The report, Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?, is produced by the RSSs Statistics and the Law Section. The group evolved from a working group of the same name set up in early 2000s after the Society wrote to the Lord Chancellorandmade a statement setting out concerns around the use of statistical evidence in the case of Sally Clark.
According to the report, suspicions about medical murder often arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular professional.
The RSS has major concerns about use of this kind of evidence in a criminal investigation: first, over the analysis and interpretation of such data, and secondly over whether it can be guaranteed that the data have been compiled in an objective and unbiased manner. A tale of two Lucys (as given)
A tale of two Lucys (as given)Richard Gill
油
Subtitle: Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a full life sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letbys lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in Science about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-statsA tale of two Lucys
A tale of two LucysRichard Gill
油
Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a full life sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letbys lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in Science about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-statsvaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
I discuss various statistical analyses of the recent Bell experiment of Storz et al. (2023, Nature) at ETH Zurich. Both standard and novel analyses under different assumptions result in almost identical conclusions. This suggests strongly that those assumptions are actually satisfied.vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
The experimenters performed a loophole-free Bell test using superconducting qubits separated by 30 meters. They entangled pairs of qubits and measured them in randomly chosen bases over 1 million trials. They found an average S value of 2.0747 賊 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum mechanics and applications in quantum information processing.vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
- The authors performed a loophole-free Bell test experiment using superconducting circuits to violate Bell's inequality. They entangled pairs of qubits over a 30 meter distance and measured them in randomly chosen bases, accumulating over 1 million trials.
- The average S value obtained was 2.0747 賊 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations between the spatially separated qubits. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum physics and applications in quantum information.Apeldoorn.pdf
Apeldoorn.pdfRichard Gill
油
What is the chance it was just a coincidence? Talk in Apeldoorn cultural society OKW on serial killer nurses, forensic science, and statistics.LundTalk2.pdf
LundTalk2.pdfRichard Gill
油
Statistics, causality, and the 2022 Nobel prizes in physics.
Richard Gill
Leiden University
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics was awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger "for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science. I will explain each of these three gentlemens contributions and point out connections to classical statistical causality and probabilistic coupling. It seems that the first commercial application of this work will be a technology called DIQKD: "device independent quantum key distribution". Alice and Bob are far apart and need to establish a shared cryptographic key so as to send one another some securely encrypted messages over public communication channels. How can they create a suitable key while far apart from one another, and only able to communicate using classical means and over public channels?LundTalk.pdf
LundTalk.pdfRichard Gill
油
Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
Abstract: The UKs *Royal Statistical Society* recently published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The RSS report came out just two weeks before the start of the trial in Manchester of a nurse called Lucy Letby. The trial is still ongoing. So far, neither side has called for evidence from experts in statistics. The core of the prosecution case is that so many odd events connected to nurse LL cannot be a coincidence.
I will discuss the challenges both procedural and conceptual which arise when presenting statistical thinking as evidence in criminal trials. https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdf
Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdfRichard Gill
油
The Utrecht University veterinary school was commissioned by the Dutch government to provide objective criteria for breeding short-muzzled dogs. Utrecht proposed 6 external characteristics rated on a traffic light system related to risks of Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome and Brachycephalic Ocular Syndrome. These included abnormal breathing, nostril shape, relative muzzle length, nasal folds, eye exposure and eyelid closure. Utrecht determined standards for each characteristic and concluded that dogs meeting certain standards could be used for breeding while those exceeding the standards should not due to increased health risks. Utrecht based their recommendations on scientific studies and expertise in companion animal genetics. However, their criteria are still debated by other scientists andherring_copenhagen.pdf
herring_copenhagen.pdfRichard Gill
油
We analyse data from the final two years of a long-running and influential annual Dutch survey of the quality of Dutch New Herring served in large samples of consumer outlets. The data was compiled and analysed by a university econometrician whose findings were publicized in national and international media. This led to the cessation of the survey amid allegations of bias due to a conflict of interest on the part of the leader of the herring tasting team. The survey organizers responded with accusations of failure of scientific integrity. The econometrician was acquitted of wrong-doing by the Dutch authority, whose inquiry nonetheless concluded that further research was needed. We reconstitute the data and uncover its important features which throw new light on the econometrician's findings, focussing on the issue of correlation versus causality: the sample is definitely not a random sample. Taking account both of newly discovered data features and of the sampling mechanism, we conclude that there is no evidence of biased evaluation, despite the econometrician's renewed insistence on his claim.Nobel.pdf
Nobel.pdfRichard Gill
油
This years Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bells landmark 1964 paper On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhards discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilingers discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"Nobel.pdf
Nobel.pdfRichard Gill
油
This years Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bells landmark 1964 paper On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhards discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilingers discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Better slides: /gill1109/nobelpdf-253673329Schr旦dingers cat meets Occams razor
Schr旦dingers cat meets Occams razorRichard Gill
油
Solution to the measurement problem based on Belavkin's theory of Eventum Mechanics. There is only Schr旦dingers equation and a unitary evolution of the wave function of the universe, but we must add a Heisenberg cut to separate the past from the future (to separate particles from waves): Belavkins eventum mechanics. The past is a commuting sub-algebra A of the algebra of all observables B, and in the Heisenberg picture, the past history of any observable in A is also in A. Particles have definite trajectories back into the past; Eventum Mechanics defines the probability distributions of future given past. https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2723 Schr旦dinger's cat meets Occam's razor (version 3: 10 Aug 2022); to appear in Entropy
optimizedBell.pptx
optimizedBell.pptxRichard Gill
油
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
optimizedBell.pptx
optimizedBell.pptxRichard Gill
油
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
Gull talk London.pdf
Gull talk London.pdfRichard Gill
油
It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.油
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
R.D. Gill (2022)油Gull's theorem revisited, Entropy 2022, 24(5), 679 (11pp.)
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/5/679
https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00719Gull talk London.pdf
Gull talk London.pdfRichard Gill
油
NB: This is a preliminary version, superceded by my next upload. It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.油
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse cases
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse casesRichard Gill
油
- In serial killer nurse cases, clusters of suspicious deaths or incidents are often associated with a particular nurse on duty. However, alternative explanations for such clusters are difficult to rule out given the low base rate of nurses committing murder.
- Statistical evidence plays a key role in these cases but can be misleading if not interpreted carefully. Characteristics of the hospital system and processes of gathering evidence can inadvertently influence statistical analyses.
- Close examination of data in one case found that statistics were selectively reported in ways that exaggerated the nurse's involvement, such as restricting time periods analyzed. Complete data sets have sometimes contradicted initial statistical impressions.Dalembert
DalembertRichard Gill
油
The article discusses the d'Alembert betting system, one of the most popular systems used in casinos in the 19th century. While the systems appear to guarantee success by equalizing wins and losses over time, they fail to account for the risk of running out of money before wins and losses balance out. However, the systems can provide surprisingly high returns on investment when wins do occur, obscuring the overall negative expected value. The article analyzes how systems like the d'Alembert are seductive due to the potential for large gains despite the inevitability of overall losses in the long run.Bell in paris
Bell in parisRichard Gill
油
Bell experiments, Bell-denialism, and the quantum Randi challenge. S辿minaire de Statistique, CREST-CMAP, Lundi 4 octobre 2021 14h. The Bell game, and proof of a strong (tail probability inequality) version of CHSH inequality, as used in 2015 loophole free experiments.Plant tissue culture- In-vitro Rooting.ppt
Plant tissue culture- In-vitro Rooting.pptlaxmichoudhary77657
油
In vitro means production in a test tube or other similar vessel where culture conditions and medium are controlled for optimum growth during tissue culture.
It is a critical step in plant tissue culture where roots are induced and developed from plant explants in a controlled, sterile environment.
際際滷 include factors affecting In-vitro Rooting, steps involved, stages and In vitro rooting of the two genotypes of Argania Spinosa in different culture media.ABA_in_plant_abiotic_stress_mitigation1.ppt
ABA_in_plant_abiotic_stress_mitigation1.pptlaxmichoudhary77657
油
際際滷 describe the role of ABA in plant abiotic stress mitigation. 際際滷 include role of ABA in cold stress, drought stress and salt stress mitigation along with role of ABA in stomatal regulation. More Related Content
More from Richard Gill (20)
A tale of two Lucys (as given)
A tale of two Lucys (as given)Richard Gill
油
Subtitle: Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract:
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a full life sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letbys lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in Science about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-statsA tale of two Lucys
A tale of two LucysRichard Gill
油
Statistical issues in the investigation of a suspected serial killer nurse
Abstract
Investigating a cluster of deaths on a hospital ward is a difficult task for medical investigators, police, and courts. Patients do die in hospitals (the three most common causes of deaths in a hospital are, in order: cancer, heart disease, medical errors). Often such cases come to the attention of police investigators for two reasons: gossip about a particular nurse is circulating just as a couple of unexpected and disturbing events occur. Hospital investigators see a pattern and call in the police.
I will discuss two such cases with which I have been intensively involved. The first one is the case of the Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk. Arrested in 2001, convicted by a succession of courts up to the supreme court by 2005, after which a long fight started to get her a re-trial. She was completely exonerated in 2010. The second case is that of the English nurse Lucy Letby. Arrested in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for murders taking place in 2015 and 2016. Her trial started in 2022 and concluded with a full life sentence a couple of months ago.
There are many similarities between the two cases, but also a couple of disturbing differences. One difference being that Lucy Letbys lawyers seem to have made no attempt whatsoever to defend her. Another difference is that statistics was used against Lucia de Berk but not, apparently, against Lucy Letby. But appearances are not always what they seem.
Report published by Royal Statistical Society on statistical issues in these cases
https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/
News feature in Science about myself and my work
https://www.science.org/content/article/unlucky-numbers-fighting-murder-convictions-rest-shoddy-statsvaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
I discuss various statistical analyses of the recent Bell experiment of Storz et al. (2023, Nature) at ETH Zurich. Both standard and novel analyses under different assumptions result in almost identical conclusions. This suggests strongly that those assumptions are actually satisfied.vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
The experimenters performed a loophole-free Bell test using superconducting qubits separated by 30 meters. They entangled pairs of qubits and measured them in randomly chosen bases over 1 million trials. They found an average S value of 2.0747 賊 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum mechanics and applications in quantum information processing.vaxjo2023rdg.pdf
vaxjo2023rdg.pdfRichard Gill
油
- The authors performed a loophole-free Bell test experiment using superconducting circuits to violate Bell's inequality. They entangled pairs of qubits over a 30 meter distance and measured them in randomly chosen bases, accumulating over 1 million trials.
- The average S value obtained was 2.0747 賊 0.0033, violating Bell's inequality with a p-value smaller than 10-108, demonstrating non-local quantum correlations between the spatially separated qubits. This establishes superconducting circuits as a viable platform for foundational tests of quantum physics and applications in quantum information.Apeldoorn.pdf
Apeldoorn.pdfRichard Gill
油
What is the chance it was just a coincidence? Talk in Apeldoorn cultural society OKW on serial killer nurses, forensic science, and statistics.LundTalk2.pdf
LundTalk2.pdfRichard Gill
油
Statistics, causality, and the 2022 Nobel prizes in physics.
Richard Gill
Leiden University
The 2022 Nobel prize in physics was awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger "for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science. I will explain each of these three gentlemens contributions and point out connections to classical statistical causality and probabilistic coupling. It seems that the first commercial application of this work will be a technology called DIQKD: "device independent quantum key distribution". Alice and Bob are far apart and need to establish a shared cryptographic key so as to send one another some securely encrypted messages over public communication channels. How can they create a suitable key while far apart from one another, and only able to communicate using classical means and over public channels?LundTalk.pdf
LundTalk.pdfRichard Gill
油
Healthcare serial killer or coincidence?
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
Abstract: The UKs *Royal Statistical Society* recently published a report tackling statistical bias in criminal trials where healthcare professionals are accused of murdering patients. Following several high-profile cases where statistical evidence has been misused, the Society calls for all parties in such cases to consult with professional statisticians and use only expert witnesses who are appropriately qualified.
The RSS report came out just two weeks before the start of the trial in Manchester of a nurse called Lucy Letby. The trial is still ongoing. So far, neither side has called for evidence from experts in statistics. The core of the prosecution case is that so many odd events connected to nurse LL cannot be a coincidence.
I will discuss the challenges both procedural and conceptual which arise when presenting statistical thinking as evidence in criminal trials. https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/section-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdf
Breed, BOAS, CFR.pdfRichard Gill
油
The Utrecht University veterinary school was commissioned by the Dutch government to provide objective criteria for breeding short-muzzled dogs. Utrecht proposed 6 external characteristics rated on a traffic light system related to risks of Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome and Brachycephalic Ocular Syndrome. These included abnormal breathing, nostril shape, relative muzzle length, nasal folds, eye exposure and eyelid closure. Utrecht determined standards for each characteristic and concluded that dogs meeting certain standards could be used for breeding while those exceeding the standards should not due to increased health risks. Utrecht based their recommendations on scientific studies and expertise in companion animal genetics. However, their criteria are still debated by other scientists andherring_copenhagen.pdf
herring_copenhagen.pdfRichard Gill
油
We analyse data from the final two years of a long-running and influential annual Dutch survey of the quality of Dutch New Herring served in large samples of consumer outlets. The data was compiled and analysed by a university econometrician whose findings were publicized in national and international media. This led to the cessation of the survey amid allegations of bias due to a conflict of interest on the part of the leader of the herring tasting team. The survey organizers responded with accusations of failure of scientific integrity. The econometrician was acquitted of wrong-doing by the Dutch authority, whose inquiry nonetheless concluded that further research was needed. We reconstitute the data and uncover its important features which throw new light on the econometrician's findings, focussing on the issue of correlation versus causality: the sample is definitely not a random sample. Taking account both of newly discovered data features and of the sampling mechanism, we conclude that there is no evidence of biased evaluation, despite the econometrician's renewed insistence on his claim.Nobel.pdf
Nobel.pdfRichard Gill
油
This years Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bells landmark 1964 paper On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhards discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilingers discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"Nobel.pdf
Nobel.pdfRichard Gill
油
This years Nobel prize in physics: homage to John Bell.
Richard Gill
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University.
Focussing on statistical issues, I will first sketch the history initiated by John Bells landmark 1964 paper On the Einstein Podolsky Rosen paradox, which led to the 2022 Nobel prize awarded to John Clauser, Alain Aspect and Anton Zeilinger,
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2022/press-release/
A breakthrough in the history was the four successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna. These experiments pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD (Device Independent Quantum Key Distribution) and a quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality", and depended on brilliant later innovations: Eberhards discovery that less entanglement could allow stronger manifestation of quantum non-locality, and Zeilingers discovery of quantum teleportation, allowing entanglement between photons to be transferred to entanglement between ions or atoms and ultimately to components of manufactured semi-conductors.
I will also discuss reanalyses of the 2015+ experiments, which could have allowed the experimenters to claim even smaller p-values than the ones they published,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
Better slides: /gill1109/nobelpdf-253673329Schr旦dingers cat meets Occams razor
Schr旦dingers cat meets Occams razorRichard Gill
油
Solution to the measurement problem based on Belavkin's theory of Eventum Mechanics. There is only Schr旦dingers equation and a unitary evolution of the wave function of the universe, but we must add a Heisenberg cut to separate the past from the future (to separate particles from waves): Belavkins eventum mechanics. The past is a commuting sub-algebra A of the algebra of all observables B, and in the Heisenberg picture, the past history of any observable in A is also in A. Particles have definite trajectories back into the past; Eventum Mechanics defines the probability distributions of future given past. https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.2723 Schr旦dinger's cat meets Occam's razor (version 3: 10 Aug 2022); to appear in Entropy
optimizedBell.pptx
optimizedBell.pptxRichard Gill
油
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
optimizedBell.pptx
optimizedBell.pptxRichard Gill
油
The successful loophole-free Bell experiments of 2015 and 2016 in Delft, Munich, NIST and Vienna were milestone achievements. They pushed quantum technology to the limit and paved the way for DIQKD and quantum internet. They were the first successful implementations of the ideal experimental protocol described by John Bell in his 1981 masterpiece "Bertlmann's socks and the nature of reality" (https://cds.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdf). Still, there is a vociferous but small community of proponents of local realism, who continue to grasp at the straws offered by some shortcomings of the 2015+ experiments. I'll discuss the loopholes in the loophole-free experiments, explain how the experimenters could have claimed much smaller p-values "for free" by using standard likelihood-based inference, but also relativise the meaning of a 25 standard deviation violation of local realism. I suggest that particle physicists have wisely settled on 5 standard deviations because of Chebyshev's inequality and the fact that 1 / 5 squared = 0.04, just significant at the 5% level.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00702 "Optimal statistical analyses of Bell experiments"
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09930 "Kupczynski's contextual setting-dependent parameters offer no escape from Bell-CHSH"
Gull talk London.pdf
Gull talk London.pdfRichard Gill
油
It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.油
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
R.D. Gill (2022)油Gull's theorem revisited, Entropy 2022, 24(5), 679 (11pp.)
https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/5/679
https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00719Gull talk London.pdf
Gull talk London.pdfRichard Gill
油
NB: This is a preliminary version, superceded by my next upload. It has long been realized that the mathematical core of Bell's theorem is essentially a classical probabilistic proof that a certain distributed computing task is impossible: namely, the Monte Carlo simulation of certain iconic quantum correlations. I will present a new and simple proof of the theorem using Fourier methods (time series analysis) which should appeal to probabilists and statisticians. I call it Gull's theorem since it was sketched in a conference talk many years ago by astrophysicist Steve Gull, but never published. Indeed, there was a gap in the proof.
The connection with the topic of this session is the following: though a useful quantum computer is perhaps still a dream, many believe that a useful quantum internet is very close indeed. The first application will be: creating shared secret random cryptographic keys which, due to the laws of physics, cannot possibly be known to any other agent. So-called loophole-free Bell experiments have already been used for this purpose.油
Like other proofs of Bell's theorem, the proof concerns a thought experiment, and the thought experiment could also in principle be carried out in the lab. This connects to the concept of functional Bell inequalities, whose application in the quantum research lab has not yet been explored. This is again a task for classical statisticians to explore.
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse cases
Statistical issues in Serial Killer Nurse casesRichard Gill
油
- In serial killer nurse cases, clusters of suspicious deaths or incidents are often associated with a particular nurse on duty. However, alternative explanations for such clusters are difficult to rule out given the low base rate of nurses committing murder.
- Statistical evidence plays a key role in these cases but can be misleading if not interpreted carefully. Characteristics of the hospital system and processes of gathering evidence can inadvertently influence statistical analyses.
- Close examination of data in one case found that statistics were selectively reported in ways that exaggerated the nurse's involvement, such as restricting time periods analyzed. Complete data sets have sometimes contradicted initial statistical impressions.Dalembert
DalembertRichard Gill
油
The article discusses the d'Alembert betting system, one of the most popular systems used in casinos in the 19th century. While the systems appear to guarantee success by equalizing wins and losses over time, they fail to account for the risk of running out of money before wins and losses balance out. However, the systems can provide surprisingly high returns on investment when wins do occur, obscuring the overall negative expected value. The article analyzes how systems like the d'Alembert are seductive due to the potential for large gains despite the inevitability of overall losses in the long run.Bell in paris
Bell in parisRichard Gill
油
Bell experiments, Bell-denialism, and the quantum Randi challenge. S辿minaire de Statistique, CREST-CMAP, Lundi 4 octobre 2021 14h. The Bell game, and proof of a strong (tail probability inequality) version of CHSH inequality, as used in 2015 loophole free experiments.Recently uploaded (20)
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Wepresent the localizationandhostgalaxyofFRB20190208A, arepeatingsourceof fast radiobursts (FRBs) discoveredusingCHIME/FRB.Aspartof thePinpointingREpeatingChImeSourceswithEVNdishesrepeater localizationprogramon theEuropeanVLBINetwork (EVN),wemonitoredFRB20190208Afor 65.6hr at 1.4GHzanddetectedasingleburst,whichledtoitsverylongbaselineinterferometrylocalizationwith260mas uncertainty(2).Follow-upopticalobservationswiththeMMTObservatory(i25.7mag(AB))foundnovisible hostattheFRBposition.SubsequentdeeperobservationswiththeGranTelescopioCanarias,however,revealedan extremelyfaintgalaxy(r=27.32賊0.16mag),verylikely(99.95%)associatedwithFRB20190208A.Giventhe dispersionmeasureoftheFRB(580pccm3),eventhemostconservativeredshiftestimate( ~ z 0.83 max )implies TheAstrophysicalJournalLetters,977:L4(17pp),2024December10 https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ad8ce1 息2024.TheAuthor(s).PublishedbytheAmericanAstronomicalSociety. 30BantingFellow. 31McGillSpaceInstituteFellow. 32 FRQNTPostdoctoralFellow. Originalcontent fromthisworkmaybeusedunder theterms of theCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0licence.Anyfurther distributionofthisworkmustmaintainattributiontotheauthor(s)andthetitle of thework, journalcitationandDOI. 1The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 977:L4 (17pp), 2024 December 10 Hewitt et al. that this is the lowest-luminosity FRB host to date (108 Le), even less luminous than the dwarf host of FRB20121102A. We investigate how localization precision and the depth of optical imaging affect host association and discuss the implications of such a low-luminosity dwarf galaxy. Unlike the other repeaters with low-luminosity hosts, FRB 20190208A has a modest Faraday rotation measure of a few tens of rad m2, and EVN plus Very Large Array observations reveal no associated compact persistent radio source. We also monitored FRB20190208A for 40.4hr over 2yr as part of the Extragalactic Coherent Light from Astrophysical Transients repeating FRB monitoring campaign on the Nan巽ay Radio Telescope and detected one burst. Our results demonstrate that, in some cases, the robust association of an FRB with a host galaxy will require both high localization precision and deep optical follow-up. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Radio bursts (1339); Radio transient sources (2008); Very long baseline interferometry (1769); Dwarf galaxies (416)Coordination and Response: The Nervous System | IGCSE Biology
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Bell mini conference RDG.pptx
- 1. Richard D. Gill, Bell mini-conference February 11 2023 Comment on Contextuality or Nonlocality: What Would John Bell Choose Today? by Marian Kupczynski Entropy 2023, 25, 280 (13pp.). https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020280
- 2. Entropy 2023, 25, 280 (13pp.). https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020280
- 3. Random variables are represented by nodes in a DAG Their joint probability distribution is built up by composing conditional distributions of the variable in each node given its node parents (Variables in root nodes are statistically independent of one another) Why this works: the nodes of a DAG can be ordered so that all arrows are pointing the same way Express in a graphical model
- 4. i, j 1, 2 i, j Ai(1, i) Bj(2, j) ~ ~ Settings (may be correlated) Source hidden variables (may be correlated) Context dependent instrument hidden variables (may be correlated) Alices outcome +/1 Bobs outcome +/1 Notice:
- 5. If the instrument hidden variables i, j are allowed to be statistically dependent, then any four joint probability distributions of pairs of setting outcomes (Ai, Bj) are allowed If the instrument hidden variables are assumed to be uncorrelated, then CHSH holds (Gill and Lambare) MKs escape route: the detection loophole. Outcome can also be zero, and MK goes on to study correlations conditional on two non-zero outcomes The cause of the muddle: bad notation The dilemma Kupczynksis quandrary