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- 2. TIME TO LEARN ABOUT A NEW MODEL TO PREDICT POPULATION GROWTH! When we talk about a model in Geography, we are talking about a visual way of predicting how something might happen based on what has happened in other places The DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL or DTM shows population change over time. The DTM studies how changes in the birth rate and death rate can affect the total population of the country and the way a population This model is based on what happened in Europe and North America from when people were first living there to today This means developed countries can generally be found in the later stages of the model and less developed countries are still in the earlier stages of the model as they started developing later.
- 7. STAGE ONE: At this stage the population is not growing and the number of people is small. This is because the birth rate and death rates are both high. WHY WOULD BOTH BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES BE HIGH? No country is still in Stage 1. Remote tribes in the rainforests in the Amazon or in a remote area in Laos may be the only example of a group of people who fit this stage
- 8. REASONS FOR BIRTH AND DEATH RATE Birth Rate is high because of: Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education No country is currently in this stage.
- 10. STAGE TWO Here the number of people are starting to grow as the death rates start to fall but the birth rates remain quite high. WHY WOULD THE DEATH RATE FALL AND THE BIRTH RATE STAY THE SAME? Countries in this stage of the DTM include Afghanistan, Bhutan and Laos
- 11. REASONS FOR DECREASING DEATH RATE Reasons for declining death rate Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typicalof Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
- 13. STAGE THREE At this stage the population is growing very rapidly but the gap between the birth and the death rates is starting to become narrower. At this stage the NATURAL INCREASE is HIGH WHY WOULD THE BIRTH RATE STARTED TO HAVE DROPPED? Countries in this stage of the DTM include INDIA, Malaysia and Bangladesh
- 14. REASONS FOR DECLINING DEATH AND BIRTH RATE Reasons behind birth and death rate falling: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women
- 16. STAGE FOUR In Stage 4, the total population is high but it is no longer growing very quickly. This is because the birth rate and death rate are balanced as both are now low. WHY HAVE BOTH THE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES LEVELLED OFF? Countries in this stage are usually developed. NZ, China and Singapore would be located in this stage.
- 18. STAGE 5? This stage would occur in countries where the number of babies born (birth rate) is less than the number of people dying (death rate). We call this being below REPLACEMENT level, as in, there are not enough babies born to replace the old people dying Countries reaching this stage are likely to be Japan and Germany This could mean that their total population numbers may start to DECLINE in the future
- 19. REASONS FOR CHANGES Reasons for changes in birth rate: Family planning Better health Later marriages Improved status of women Reasons for changes in death rate: Good health care Reliable food supply People are generally living longer Birth Rate slightfall. Death Rate stable. Natural increase:gentle decrease Typical of Germany
- 21. WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS? It does not include the number of people migrating It assumes that all countries will go through the same process of development,developmentwill nothappen equally and atthe same rates for each country There is no time scale Reasons for birth rates and death rates changing can be for very differentreasons in differentcountries
- 23. Identify the stage of this graph in which population grows the fastest and explain why this is the case. Besides population growth rate, describe one economic or societal indicator of a country in this phase. FRQ Practic 3.9
- 24. CAN YOU ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS? 1. At which stage is the death rate the highest? 2. At which stage is the natural increase the highest? 3. At which stage is there a natural decrease? 4. At which stage is population growth the highest?
- 25. CAN YOU TELL HOW DEVELOPED A COUNTRY IS BY LOOKING AT THE DTM? As a country passes through the demographic transition model, the total population rises. Most developing countries are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing population and a HIGH natural increase). Most developed countries are now at stage four.
- 26. AQUICK CLIP TORECAP AND SOME SILLINESS A quick recap.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nonCD5GR9bw Some silliness https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxREH08EkI
- 27. EXTRA FOR EXPERTS: BIRTH RATE, DEATH RATE AND NATURAL INCREASE DESCRIBE the progression of the birth rate and death rate of a country as it moves through the stages and EXPLAIN how this links to natural increase