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GP Betting League - How to become a pro
- 1. 1 / 37 GP Betting League Become a Pro ukasz Gowacki
- 2. 2 / 37 Plan Approaches to betting My method Some stats and graphs
- 3. 3 / 37 Needful knowledge Betting for beginners Some basics from Probability Theory and Statistics
- 4. 4 / 37 About me DevOps Engineer in the NYX team Interesting in football and gambling theory Gambling against friends for 20 years Wrote 4 friendly gambling mini-portals Some successes in GPBL ;-)
- 5. 5 / 37 Approaches to betting Im an expert v I follow experts
- 6. 6 / 37 Watching bookmakers
- 7. 7 / 37 Watching bookmakers Manchester United v Liverpool Match odds 1 3.15 2 2.64 X 3.25
- 8. 8 / 37 Watching bookmakers Manchester United v Liverpool Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 9. 9 / 37 Maximal expected value In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable, intuitively, is the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents.
- 10. 10 / 37 Example Bookmaker pays 10 coins for obtaining numbers 2 or 3 in a dice throw, 20 for obtaining 5 and expects 25 coins back if we obtain 4.
- 11. 11 / 37 Maximum expected value Expected value of GPBL pointing rules
- 12. 12 / 37 Maximum expected value Expected value of GPBL pointing rules
- 13. 13 / 37 Maximum expected value Expected value of GPBL pointing rules
- 14. 14 / 37 Maximum expected value Bonus points value is not possible to settle straight from the pointing rules But if we assume we count on about 5 correct scores per gameweek, the average bonus is 2 (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4) / 5 = 10 / 5 = 2 If the matches are played one after another, we can use the next possible bonus
- 15. 15 / 37 Maximum expected value Expected value of GPBL pointing rules
- 16. 16 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 17. 17 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 18. 18 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 19. 19 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 20. 20 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 21. 21 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 22. 22 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Match odds Correct score 1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5 2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5 X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5 0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0 1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0 1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0 1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0 1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0
- 23. 23 / 37 Example Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1 Score Expected value Score Expected value 1 - 1 2.22 1 - 3 1.78 0 - 1 2.16 2 - 3 1.74 1 - 2 2.13 2 - 0 1.60 0 - 0 1.91 0 - 3 1.59 1 - 0 1.90 3 - 1 1.55 2 - 1 1.88 3 - 2 1.52 0 - 2 1.86 3 - 3 1.46 2 - 2 1.82 3 - 0 1.34
- 24. 24 / 37 Well, this is the theory... But lets dig into data to find out some regularities https://bettingleaguegp.appspot.com/api/results?id=34
- 25. 25 / 37 Some GPBL stats The winner
- 26. 26 / 37 Some GPBL stats Correct scores
- 27. 27 / 37 Some GPBL stats Goals difference
- 28. 28 / 37 Some GPBL stats Host goals
- 29. 29 / 37 Some GPBL stats Guest goals
- 30. 30 / 37 Some GPBL stats Correct score - Poland
- 31. 31 / 37 Some GPBL stats Correct score - France
- 32. 32 / 37 Some GPBL stats The winner Italy, CL
- 33. 33 / 37 Some GPBL stats The winner England, Poland
- 34. 34 / 37 Some GPBL stats The winner - Spain
- 35. 35 / 37 Final tips Polish league is unpredictable The best approach to the Polish league is 1:0 In the English and Polish leagues hosts are the winners in one match out of two French league: Martyn mode (1:0, 1:1, 0:1) Exceptions are PSG, Monaco, Lyon
- 36. 36 / 37 Final tips Spanish league likes draws Italian doesnt Generally, if the lowest price in match odds is greater than 2.65, pick draw In doubt pick the most popular result Keep patient you are only a fluctuation
- 37. 37 / 37 Thats all, folks Thank you