Greco twins disi analysis 1997-2003
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The document discusses the water dispute over the Disi aquifer between Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It provides background that the aquifer is non-renewable and is being pumped by both countries for their water projects. Jordan has previously accused Saudi Arabia of overpumping. The document applies the "TWINS analysis" to examine the conflict historically and analyze the relationship between the two countries. It assesses factors like political and economic issues, levels of cooperation, and different faces of power in their dynamic over the shared water source. It concludes the TWINS analysis is useful but has limitations, and is an approximative tool for comparing case studies.
Greco twins disi analysis 1997-2003
- 1. The Disi aquifer water dispute between Jordan and Saudi Arabia: an application of the TWINS analysis Francesca Greco London Water Research Group FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON HYDRO-HEGEMONY Hosted by Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance, LSE Understanding and Challenging Water and Power Asymmetry Weekend of 31 May/1 June 2008 francescagreco78@gmail.com 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 2. THE DISI WATER : a shared groundwater basin a nonrenewable ( fossil) water aquifer project works starting in 2008 awarded through international bid by a private company no international aid, no donors high environmental impact one of the largest mega-water projects on earth ( 325 km long pipeline) THE DISPUTE: pumping race between the two countries no agreement on the issue Jordan no formal talks about joint actions over the aquifer Jordan strategy: in the past ; accusation of over-exploitation Saudi Arabia today: priorWorkshop on 4th International use strategy Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 3. Trajectory of the Jordan Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer Low Cooperation Intensity High Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Low Non-politicized 1 Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 Securitized / Opportunitized 3 Violized 4 High 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 4. Trajectory of the Jordan Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer Low Cooperation Intensity High Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Low Non-politicized 1 1980s: a UNDP technical mission evaluates the aquifer Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 1990s: First Jordanian accusations of Saudi overexploitation Securitized / 2002: Declaration of Disi as a state- Opportunitized 3 security issue ongoing: SILENTIZATION/time-gaining Violized 4 High 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 5. Trajectory of the Jordan Saudi Arabia Relation over the Disi Aquifer Low Cooperation Intensity High Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Low Non-politicized 1 1980s: a UNDP technical mission evaluates the aquifer Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 1990s: First Jordanian accusations of Saudi overexploitation Securitized / 2002: Declaration of Disi as a state- Opportunitized 3 security issue ongoing: SILENTIZATION/time-gaining Violized 4 High 4th International Workshop on verbal violence and silentization Rather Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 6. high THE ECONOMIC NEXUS Robustness of Political Economy Low Cooperation Intensity High Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Low Non-politicized 1 Conflict Intensity Politicized 2 Securitized / Opportunitized 3 Violized 4 High 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 7. 1 high high 45 65 110 medium Robustness of Political Economy: 130 low Low 195 Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 Politicized 2 Securitized / Opportunitized 3 Violized 4 RANKING OF GDP PER HEAD from the Highest ( n.1) to the Lowest: n. 195 ( 195=TOTAL n. of COUNTRIES worldwide) Source:WB 2007 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 8. 1 high high 45 Robustness of 65 Political Economy: 110 medium 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 Politicized 2 Securitized / Opportunitized 3 Violized 4 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 9. 1 high high 45 65 Robustness of 110 medium Political Economy: 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 Drivers for COOPERATION Politicized 2 Securitized / Opportunitized 3 Violized 4 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 10. 1 high high 45 65 Robustness of 110 medium Political Economy: 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 Drivers for COOPERATION T LIC Politicized 2 F ON fC o Securitized / 3 rs Opportunitized ive Dr Violized 4 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 11. 1 high high 45 65 110 medium 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 Drivers for COOPERATION T LIC Politicized 2 F ON fC o Securitized / 3 rs Opportunitized ive Dr Violized 4 As mentioned before: silent conflict and non-acting upon the issue. Time-play as strategy of conflict over a shared resource 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 12. 1 high high 45 65 Robustness of 110 medium Political Economy: 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 BARGAINiNG POWER Politicized 2 IDEATIONAL Securitized / Opportunitized 3 POWER COERCIVE POWER Violized 4 4th International Workshop on THE THE FACE OF POWER: non-violent coercive power Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 13. 1 high high 45 65 Robustness of 110 medium Political Economy: 130 low 195 Low Confrontation Ad hoc Technical Risk-averting Risk-taking of Issue Non-politicized 1 T LIC Politicized 2 F ON fC o Securitized / 3 rs Opportunitized ive Dr COERCIVE Violized POWER 4 Non violent conflict, 4th International Workshop on economic gap, coercive power , many drivers of conflicts. Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 14. Evaluation of the TWINS analysis: good for historical patterns analysis of conflicts useful for combinating economical and political issues together Approximative for the economic part ( economic robustness ranking is one-dimention-data only, and this implies the utilization of a one-dimentional indicator) good tool for comparing case studies 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission
- 15. Thank you for your attention ! francescagreco78@gmail.com 4th International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without authors permission