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息 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
息 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Javno mnjenje CG
NATO
Jul 2013.
Sadr転aj
2
3
Metodologija
1
4
Nain prikupljanja podataka: F2F (terenska anketa)
Izvor podataka na osnovu reprezentativnog uzorka za populaciju Crne Gore od 18 i vi邸e godina
Veliina uzorka je 1029 ispitanika
Tip uzorka sluajni, dvoetapni, stratifikovani uzorak:
Izbor domadinstva prostim sluajnim uzorkom (SRSWoR)
Izbor lana domadinstva na osnovu Kishovih tablica
Stratifikacija se vr邸i na osnovu:
Tipa naselja  urban/rural
Geo-ekonomskih regiona
Prikupljanje podataka obavljeno od 13. do 16. jula 2013 godine
Post stratifikacija na osnovu: pola, godina, tipa naselja i geo-ekonomskih regiona
95% statistiki interval povjerenja za pojave sa incidencom od 50% je +/- 3.1%
Automatska kontrola procedure, interaktivna kontrola konzistencije i logika kontrola odgovora u 100%
sluajeva
METODOLOGIJA:
IPSOS STRATEGIC MARKETING JE U PERIODU OD 13. DO 16. JULA SPROVEO ISTRA貼IVANJE O
EU I NATO INTEGRACIJAMA , NA REPREZENTATIVNOM UZORKU PUNOLJETNIH GRAANA
CRNE GORE, ZA POTREBE TELEVIZIJE VIJESTI
UZORAK
5
49%
51%
22%
27% 27%
24%
22%
59%
19%
48%
31%
12%
5% 4%
28%
47%
25%
64%
36%
Mu邸ki
貼enski
18-29
30-44
45-59
>60
Osnovnoini転e
Srednja
Vi邸aivisoka
Crnogorci
Srbi
Muslimani/Bo邸njaci
Albanaci
Ostali
Sjever
Centar
Jug
Urban
Drugo
UZORAK JUL 2013.
N = 1029
 = 100% po obilje転ju
Pol Godine Obrazovanje Nacionalnost Region Tip
6
NATO
2
62%
14%
76%
22%
5%
17%
2%
1 - Sigurno bih glasao
2 - Vjerovatno bih glasao
GLASALI BI (1+2)
NE BI GLASALI (3+4)
3 - Vjerovatno ne bih
glasao
4 - Sigurno ne bih glasao
Ne zna
IZLAZNOST NA REFERENDUM ZA PRIDRU貼ENJE U NATO
7
Baza: Ukupna populacija
Ukoliko bi sjutra bio raspisan referendum sa pitanjem 束Da li podr転avate ulanjenje na邸e
zemlje u NATO損, kako biste Vi iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu:
Procjenjena izlaznost
na referndumu o
pridru転ivanju NATO, da
je odr転an u julu: 60%
PODR貼AVANJE LANSTVA CRNE GORE U NATO NA REFERENDUMU
8
Ako biste iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu, da li biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane
lanica NATO ili biste glasali protiv ulanjenja?
51
49
Procjenjena izlaznost na referendumu 60%
48
47
5
Glasao bih za
Glasao bih protiv
Ne zna
OD NJIH SAMO OPREDJELJENISAMO ONI KOJI BI IZALI NA REFERENDUM
Opredjeljeni: 57% ukupne populacije
 OD UKUPNE POPULACIJE U CRNOJ GORI, 40% GRAANA BI PODR貼ALO PRIDRU貼IVANJE
CRNE GORE NATO ALIJANSI DOK SE 39% PROTIVI NATO INTEGRACIJAMA
 MEUTIM, SVI ONI NE BI IZALI NA EVENTUALNI REFRENDUM. AKO BI SE REFERENDUM
ZA PRIKLJUENJE CRNE GORE NATO ODR貼AVAO U OVOM TRENUTKU, GLASALO BI 60%
GRAANA CRNE GORE.
 POSMATRANO NA POPULACIJI ONIH KOJI BI, U OVOM TRENUTKU, GLASALI NA
REFERENDUMU (60% UKUPNE POPULACIJE) 48% BI GLASALO ZA PRIDRU貼IVANJE, 47%
BI GLASALO PROTIV, A 5% JE BILO NEOPREDJELJENIH U TRNUTKU SPROVOENJA
ISTRA貼IVANJA.
 AKO SE POSMATRAJU SAMO ONI KOJI BI IZALI NA REFRENDUM I PRI TOME ZNAJU
KAKO BI GLASALI (A TAKVIH JE 57% OD UKNUPNE POPULACIJE) OD NJIH BI 51% GLASALO
ZA PRIDRU貼IVANJE NATO ALIJANSI A 49% BI GLASALO PROTIV.
9
73
65
55
20
8
18
23
35
69
74
ECG
BS
PCG
SNP
DF
GLASALIBINAPARLAMENTARNIMIZBORIMAZA...
Glasao bih za Glasao bih protiv
Dali biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane lanica NATO ili biste
glasali protiv ulanjenja?
10
Baza: Ukupna populacija
Ako biste iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu, da li biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane
lanica NATO ili biste glasali protiv ulanjenja?
Prema va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li su slededi procesi povezani ili odvojeni:
ulazak Crne Gore u Evropsku uniju i ulazak Crne Gore u NATO?
11
Baza: Ukupna populacija
Prema va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li su slededi procesi povezani ili odvojeni: ulazak Crne Gore u
Evropsku uniju i ulazak Crne Gore u NATO?
56
38
6
Povezani
Odvojeni
Ne zna
22%
13%
35%
57%
32%
25%
8%
1 - Uop邸te ne bi ubrzao
2 - Uglavnom ne bi
ubrzao
NE BI UBRZALO (1+2)
UBRZALO BI (3+4)
3 - Uglavnom bi ubrzao
4 - Sigurno bi ubrzao
Ne zna
Po Va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li bi ulazak Crne Gore u NATO ubrzao proces
ulanjenja Crne Gore u Evropsku uniju?
12
Baza: Ukupna populacija
 NA DUGI ROK JE OIGLEDAN RAST PODRKE NATO INTEGRACIJAMA (2009: 31%, 2013:
40%), I TO PRIJE SVEGA NA RAUN ONIH KOJI SU NEOPREDJELJENI ILI NE BI GLASALI NA
REFERENDUMU, DOK PROCENAT ONIH KOJI SE PROTIVE NATO INTEGRACIJAMA U
ODNOSU NA 2009. GODINU GOTOVO IDENTIAN (2009: 38%, 2013: 39%).
 U PROTEKLIH GODINU DANA PODRKA NATO INTEGRACIJAMA U UKUPNOJ POPULACIJI
JE U VELIKOJ MJERI STABILNA. UOENE OSCILACIJE SU NA NIVOU 1-3% MEU ONIMA
KOJI PODR貼AVAJU NATO, KAO I MEU ONIMA KOJI SE PROTIVE.
 GOTOVO 他 BIRAA ECG U OVOM TRENUTKU PODR貼AVA NATO INTEGRACIJE (18%
PROTIV); ZA NJIMA SLIJEDE BIRAI BONJAKE STRANKE SA DVOTREDINSKOM
PODRKOM (23% PROTIV), ZATIM SLIJEDE BIRAI POZITIVNE CRNE GORE  55% ZA 35%
PROTIV. OSIM TOGA, SVAKI PETI BIRA SNP-A PODR貼AVA NATO INTEGRACIJE (69%
PROTIV) I TEK SVAKI DVANAESTI BIRA DEMOKRATSKOG FRONTA (他 PROTIV).
 VEDINA GRAANA -56%, SMATRA DA SU EVROPSKE I NATO INTEGRACIJE POVEZANI
PROCESI, DOK 38% SMATRA DA NISU.
13
HVALA NA PA貼NJI!

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Nato Crna Gora

  • 1. 息 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 息 2013 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Javno mnjenje CG NATO Jul 2013.
  • 4. 4 Nain prikupljanja podataka: F2F (terenska anketa) Izvor podataka na osnovu reprezentativnog uzorka za populaciju Crne Gore od 18 i vi邸e godina Veliina uzorka je 1029 ispitanika Tip uzorka sluajni, dvoetapni, stratifikovani uzorak: Izbor domadinstva prostim sluajnim uzorkom (SRSWoR) Izbor lana domadinstva na osnovu Kishovih tablica Stratifikacija se vr邸i na osnovu: Tipa naselja urban/rural Geo-ekonomskih regiona Prikupljanje podataka obavljeno od 13. do 16. jula 2013 godine Post stratifikacija na osnovu: pola, godina, tipa naselja i geo-ekonomskih regiona 95% statistiki interval povjerenja za pojave sa incidencom od 50% je +/- 3.1% Automatska kontrola procedure, interaktivna kontrola konzistencije i logika kontrola odgovora u 100% sluajeva METODOLOGIJA: IPSOS STRATEGIC MARKETING JE U PERIODU OD 13. DO 16. JULA SPROVEO ISTRA貼IVANJE O EU I NATO INTEGRACIJAMA , NA REPREZENTATIVNOM UZORKU PUNOLJETNIH GRAANA CRNE GORE, ZA POTREBE TELEVIZIJE VIJESTI
  • 7. 62% 14% 76% 22% 5% 17% 2% 1 - Sigurno bih glasao 2 - Vjerovatno bih glasao GLASALI BI (1+2) NE BI GLASALI (3+4) 3 - Vjerovatno ne bih glasao 4 - Sigurno ne bih glasao Ne zna IZLAZNOST NA REFERENDUM ZA PRIDRU貼ENJE U NATO 7 Baza: Ukupna populacija Ukoliko bi sjutra bio raspisan referendum sa pitanjem 束Da li podr転avate ulanjenje na邸e zemlje u NATO損, kako biste Vi iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu: Procjenjena izlaznost na referndumu o pridru転ivanju NATO, da je odr転an u julu: 60%
  • 8. PODR貼AVANJE LANSTVA CRNE GORE U NATO NA REFERENDUMU 8 Ako biste iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu, da li biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane lanica NATO ili biste glasali protiv ulanjenja? 51 49 Procjenjena izlaznost na referendumu 60% 48 47 5 Glasao bih za Glasao bih protiv Ne zna OD NJIH SAMO OPREDJELJENISAMO ONI KOJI BI IZALI NA REFERENDUM Opredjeljeni: 57% ukupne populacije
  • 9. OD UKUPNE POPULACIJE U CRNOJ GORI, 40% GRAANA BI PODR貼ALO PRIDRU貼IVANJE CRNE GORE NATO ALIJANSI DOK SE 39% PROTIVI NATO INTEGRACIJAMA MEUTIM, SVI ONI NE BI IZALI NA EVENTUALNI REFRENDUM. AKO BI SE REFERENDUM ZA PRIKLJUENJE CRNE GORE NATO ODR貼AVAO U OVOM TRENUTKU, GLASALO BI 60% GRAANA CRNE GORE. POSMATRANO NA POPULACIJI ONIH KOJI BI, U OVOM TRENUTKU, GLASALI NA REFERENDUMU (60% UKUPNE POPULACIJE) 48% BI GLASALO ZA PRIDRU貼IVANJE, 47% BI GLASALO PROTIV, A 5% JE BILO NEOPREDJELJENIH U TRNUTKU SPROVOENJA ISTRA貼IVANJA. AKO SE POSMATRAJU SAMO ONI KOJI BI IZALI NA REFRENDUM I PRI TOME ZNAJU KAKO BI GLASALI (A TAKVIH JE 57% OD UKNUPNE POPULACIJE) OD NJIH BI 51% GLASALO ZA PRIDRU貼IVANJE NATO ALIJANSI A 49% BI GLASALO PROTIV. 9
  • 10. 73 65 55 20 8 18 23 35 69 74 ECG BS PCG SNP DF GLASALIBINAPARLAMENTARNIMIZBORIMAZA... Glasao bih za Glasao bih protiv Dali biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane lanica NATO ili biste glasali protiv ulanjenja? 10 Baza: Ukupna populacija Ako biste iza邸li da glasate na tom referendumu, da li biste glasali za to da Crna Gora postane lanica NATO ili biste glasali protiv ulanjenja?
  • 11. Prema va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li su slededi procesi povezani ili odvojeni: ulazak Crne Gore u Evropsku uniju i ulazak Crne Gore u NATO? 11 Baza: Ukupna populacija Prema va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li su slededi procesi povezani ili odvojeni: ulazak Crne Gore u Evropsku uniju i ulazak Crne Gore u NATO? 56 38 6 Povezani Odvojeni Ne zna
  • 12. 22% 13% 35% 57% 32% 25% 8% 1 - Uop邸te ne bi ubrzao 2 - Uglavnom ne bi ubrzao NE BI UBRZALO (1+2) UBRZALO BI (3+4) 3 - Uglavnom bi ubrzao 4 - Sigurno bi ubrzao Ne zna Po Va邸em mi邸ljenju, da li bi ulazak Crne Gore u NATO ubrzao proces ulanjenja Crne Gore u Evropsku uniju? 12 Baza: Ukupna populacija
  • 13. NA DUGI ROK JE OIGLEDAN RAST PODRKE NATO INTEGRACIJAMA (2009: 31%, 2013: 40%), I TO PRIJE SVEGA NA RAUN ONIH KOJI SU NEOPREDJELJENI ILI NE BI GLASALI NA REFERENDUMU, DOK PROCENAT ONIH KOJI SE PROTIVE NATO INTEGRACIJAMA U ODNOSU NA 2009. GODINU GOTOVO IDENTIAN (2009: 38%, 2013: 39%). U PROTEKLIH GODINU DANA PODRKA NATO INTEGRACIJAMA U UKUPNOJ POPULACIJI JE U VELIKOJ MJERI STABILNA. UOENE OSCILACIJE SU NA NIVOU 1-3% MEU ONIMA KOJI PODR貼AVAJU NATO, KAO I MEU ONIMA KOJI SE PROTIVE. GOTOVO 他 BIRAA ECG U OVOM TRENUTKU PODR貼AVA NATO INTEGRACIJE (18% PROTIV); ZA NJIMA SLIJEDE BIRAI BONJAKE STRANKE SA DVOTREDINSKOM PODRKOM (23% PROTIV), ZATIM SLIJEDE BIRAI POZITIVNE CRNE GORE 55% ZA 35% PROTIV. OSIM TOGA, SVAKI PETI BIRA SNP-A PODR貼AVA NATO INTEGRACIJE (69% PROTIV) I TEK SVAKI DVANAESTI BIRA DEMOKRATSKOG FRONTA (他 PROTIV). VEDINA GRAANA -56%, SMATRA DA SU EVROPSKE I NATO INTEGRACIJE POVEZANI PROCESI, DOK 38% SMATRA DA NISU. 13