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2017有條件普選嗎?

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陳健民
香港中文大學公民社會研究中心主任
(市場)經濟發展 -中產階級
公民社會
法治
政治社會
廉潔有效率的行政機關

鞏固民主的五大條件
革命

從上而下的改革
互動模式

民主化三條路徑
1.社會壓力 - 增加專制統治的代價
2.協商談判 -減低統治者改革的風險

互動模式要兼顧兩個方面
政治滯差與社會衝突

香港普選的迫切性與民主
化路徑
缺乏监督的政治制度
缺乏支持的政治制度
缺乏公义的政治制度
社会矛盾加深
政经环境劣质化
政改悬崖
对话谈判已失去动力
激进力量未能主流化
政改失敗: 激進化、本土化
香港民主化的出路:
雙翼齊飛
和平佔中打破温和與激進
界線
张力。谈判。公民授权
習近平會否成為中國的蔣
經國…….

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