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PREDIKSJON: OVERTRO ELLER SUNN RELIGION?

                        Frokostmøte
                         IBM & RAV
           Tor Westby Stålsett – Geelmuyden.Kiese

               www.geelmuyden-kiese.no
            www.facebook.com/gelmuydenkiese
            www.twitter.com/geelmuydenkiese
MEG – TOR WESTBY STÅLSETT




                      Siviløkonom fra NHH i Bergen

                      27 år

                      Konsulent med ansvar for analyse i
                      Geelmuyden.Kiese.

                      twitter: @torstals
HVA ER TILLIT?
TILLIT BYGGES INNENFRA OG UT – IKKE OMVENDT
HVA BETYR DET?



                   FORVENTNING




                        TILLIT /
          ATFERD
                       MISSTILLIT
FORRETNINGSRELEVANT?




                  NOEN
             ER DET         DER UTE SOM
                 FORVENTER ABSOLUTT

            INGENTING AV DIN
       ORGANISASJON?
FORVENTNINGSTAKERE




     EIERE                         ANSATTE




    KUNDER           MYNDIGHETER             LEVERANDØRER
FORVENTNINGSGIVERE…HVEM ER DET?
BUDSKAP

• Leverandører
   – Vi trenger X enheter av denne innsatsfaktoren i Q3.


• Ansatte
   – Vi ansetter Y årsverk i dette kvartalet.


• Kunder
   – Produktet kommer i Q4.


• Eiere
   – Inntjening og resultat i Q4 forventes å bli…
SÅ… HVORDAN ORIENTERER DU DEG?
OG PÅ HVILKET GRUNNLAG TAR DU BESLUTNINGER?




             Nassim Taleb
Presentasjon Tor Westby Stålsett
TINE
HVA SKULLE DE PREDIKERE?
KRISE… REALLY?
SÅ VAR DET DETTE MED FORVENTNINGER DA…
OG DET KUNNE VISST VÆRT UNNGÅTT…
HVA KUNNE TINE GJORT ANNERLEDES?

• Tatt høyde for flere relevante variabler i modellen sin
    – Julehøytid er mathøytid
    – Hysteriet rundt lavkarbo
    – ….

   Da hadde de kanskje truffet bedre med etterspørselsprognosene.


• Men, de kunne kanskje gjort noe underveis også?
    – Gitt at prognosene ble oppdatert kunne ledelsen reagert raskere – kanskje
      kunne vi økt egen produksjon?
    – Importen kunne vi uansett justert nærmest på dagen… (i det minste i teorien..)
FORTID = FREMTID?




                              Based on historical trends,
        our projections show that population numbers should keep increasing;
            we look to the upcoming Thanksgiving season with confidence.
KONKLUSJON




             SUNN RELIGION!
TAKK FOR MEG!


   Tor W. Stålsett
   Geelmuyden.Kiese
   Li l le Grensen 7, N-0159 Os lo
   Mobi le +47 922 51 203
   tws @geelmuyden-kiese.no

   www.geelmuyden-kiese.no
   http://fa cebook.com/geelmuydenkiese
   http://twi tter.com/geelmuydenkiese

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Presentasjon Tor Westby Stålsett

  • 1. f(x) PREDIKSJON: OVERTRO ELLER SUNN RELIGION? Frokostmøte IBM & RAV Tor Westby Stålsett – Geelmuyden.Kiese www.geelmuyden-kiese.no www.facebook.com/gelmuydenkiese www.twitter.com/geelmuydenkiese
  • 2. MEG – TOR WESTBY STÅLSETT Siviløkonom fra NHH i Bergen 27 år Konsulent med ansvar for analyse i Geelmuyden.Kiese. twitter: @torstals
  • 4. TILLIT BYGGES INNENFRA OG UT – IKKE OMVENDT
  • 5. HVA BETYR DET? FORVENTNING TILLIT / ATFERD MISSTILLIT
  • 6. FORRETNINGSRELEVANT? NOEN ER DET DER UTE SOM FORVENTER ABSOLUTT INGENTING AV DIN ORGANISASJON?
  • 7. FORVENTNINGSTAKERE EIERE ANSATTE KUNDER MYNDIGHETER LEVERANDØRER
  • 9. BUDSKAP • Leverandører – Vi trenger X enheter av denne innsatsfaktoren i Q3. • Ansatte – Vi ansetter Y årsverk i dette kvartalet. • Kunder – Produktet kommer i Q4. • Eiere – Inntjening og resultat i Q4 forventes å bli…
  • 11. OG PÅ HVILKET GRUNNLAG TAR DU BESLUTNINGER? Nassim Taleb
  • 13. TINE
  • 14. HVA SKULLE DE PREDIKERE?
  • 16. SÅ VAR DET DETTE MED FORVENTNINGER DA…
  • 17. OG DET KUNNE VISST VÆRT UNNGÅTT…
  • 18. HVA KUNNE TINE GJORT ANNERLEDES? • Tatt høyde for flere relevante variabler i modellen sin – Julehøytid er mathøytid – Hysteriet rundt lavkarbo – …. Da hadde de kanskje truffet bedre med etterspørselsprognosene. • Men, de kunne kanskje gjort noe underveis også? – Gitt at prognosene ble oppdatert kunne ledelsen reagert raskere – kanskje kunne vi økt egen produksjon? – Importen kunne vi uansett justert nærmest på dagen… (i det minste i teorien..)
  • 19. FORTID = FREMTID? Based on historical trends, our projections show that population numbers should keep increasing; we look to the upcoming Thanksgiving season with confidence.
  • 20. KONKLUSJON SUNN RELIGION!
  • 21. TAKK FOR MEG! Tor W. Stålsett Geelmuyden.Kiese Li l le Grensen 7, N-0159 Os lo Mobi le +47 922 51 203 tws @geelmuyden-kiese.no www.geelmuyden-kiese.no http://fa cebook.com/geelmuydenkiese http://twi tter.com/geelmuydenkiese