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Copyright 2011 by Jaeho BAE. All Right Reserved.
No Part of this document may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Jhbae @ HU
2011. 7.
??? ?? ???
jhbae@osan.ac.kr
??? ?? ?? ??

copyright ? 2011., JHBae@hu.ac.kr
About Instructor��
l??? - ?????: ????? ?? ???? ????, ????
??, 2010. 6. 25.
l?Mature Market Sub-segmentation and Its Evaluation
by the Degree of Homogeneity, JDS, 8(3), pp.27-35, 2010.
l?A Study on the Customer Experience Analysis for the
Silver Generation in the Communication Service
Market using CEM, JSKISE, 32(2), pp.66��75, 2009.
l?Practical setup time implementation in the roll-based
manufacturing practice having print operations, IE
Interface, 22(1), pp. 85-94, 2009.
l?Quality control system development corresponding to
the ?oor status for improving process control level,
JKIPE, 13(2), pp. 59-67, 2008.
l??? - ????? ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ??? ???, 10-2010-
0707612.
l??? - ??? ????? ??? ???? ? ?? ??? ???,
10-2010-0707613.
??/
????
??
???
??
??? (Jaeho BAE, Ph. D.)
2008 ????? ?? (????????)
???? (?????, SCM, ????)
l??) ???? ???????, ??
l??) ????? ???? ??
l??) EIB Korea, ????
l??) PWC Consulting, Principal Consultant
l??) ????? e-Business ??, ????
l??) ?????, ????

About Instructor��
??? (Jaeho BAE, Ph. D.)
2008 ????? ?? (????????)
???? (?????, SCM, ????)
l??) ???? ???????, ??
l??) ????? ???? ??
l??) EIB Korea, ????
l??) PWC Consulting, Principal Consultant
l??) ????? e-Business ??, ????
l??) ?????, ????
??
???
??
PI ? ?? ?? ??
l? 2010.07~2010.12: ???? ????? CTQ ?? ? ?? ?? ??
l? 2008.01~2008.12: ???? PI Master Plan ? PI 1? ?? ??
l? 2007.09~2007.11: KT ??????? ?? ???/??? ??
l? 2006.04~2006.06: ????? PI Master Plan ??
l? 2004.04~2004.06: ???? ?? ?? PI Master Plan ??
l? 2002.03~2002.06: SKT ?? IT ?? ?? ???? ??
l? 2001.07~2001.09: CCKBC (????) ?? ?? ??
???? ?? ? ?? ??
l? 2010.06~2011.05: ?????, ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? LED ??? ??
l? 2007.03~2007.08: KCC? ???? ???? ??
l? 2006.11~2007.03: ?????? ???? ???? ??
l? 2004.08~2005.01: KAC? ???? ???? ??
l? 1998.09~1999.10: ?????, ??? ERP ??? ?? ???? ??
l? 1997.06~1998.06: ??? ?? ?? ?? ???/???? ???? ?? ? ??
l? 1996.11~1997.06: ?????, ???? ??? ????? ?? converter ??
l? 1995.11~1996.03: ?????, MMI ??
?? ??? ??
l? ?????, ????? ISP ??
l? ?????? ???? ??? ??
l? ????? BI ??? ??
l? ?????? MES ??? ??
l? MCM? ERP Roll-out
l? ????? ???? ??? ??
l? ????? MES ??
l? KAC? MES ??
l? KT? ERP ??
l? ????? ERP ??
l? ??? ERP ??
l? ???? ERP ??
??/
????

It is not the strongest of
the species that survives
nor the most intelligent, ?
it is those most adaptive
to change.
"
"
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ???,
??? ? ???? ?? ?? ???.
Charles Robert Darwin, 1809.2.12 ~ 1882.4.19
??? ????, ???. ?? ??: ?? ??

uestion 1.
Q??? ????? ???? ????? ????
?????...
??? ??? ??? ? ? ??? ??!
VS.
P&G? ??? ??? ???? ???

uestion 1.
Q?? ??? ???? ?? ???
1. ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ??? ?? ????...
2. ??? ?? ???? ?? ????...
3. ???? ???? ???? ?? ???? ???...
???? ????,
Q1. ?? ?? ???? ???, ???? ??? ? ???...
Q2. ??? ??? ??? �M��?? ??? ?????

uestion 1.
Q??? ????? R&D? ???? ????
It��s a
Prisonner��s Dilemma

uestion 1.
Q?? ??? ????
P&G ? ???? ??
??? ???? ???? ??
?? ?? ???? ??
?? ?? ???? ?? ??
Case 1.
Case 2.
Case 3.
Case 4.

uestion 1.
Q? ??? ??? ??? ?????.
P&G ? ???? ??
??? ???? ???? ??
?? ?? ???? ??
?? ?? ???? ?? ??
Case 1.
Case 2.
Case 3.
Case 4.
P&G: +80 / ??? ???: -20
??? ???: +80 / P&G: -20
?? ??: +20
?? ??: +60

uestion 1.
Q?? ??? ??? ??, ??? ?? ????.
Payoff Matrix
??? ????
R&D ???? ?? R&D ???? ?? ??
P&G?
R&D?
???? ??
R&D?
???? ??
??
+ 20
- 20
+ 20
+80
+ 80
+60
- 20
+60

uestion 1.
Q?? ??? ???? ? ????
Payoff Matrix
??? ????
R&D ???? ?? R&D ???? ?? ??
P&G?
R&D?
???? ??
R&D?
???? ??
??
+ 20
- 20
+ 20
+80
+ 80
+60
- 20
+60
Nash��s Equilibrium

uestion 1.
Q?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ?????.
Payoff Matrix
??? ????
R&D ???? ?? R&D ???? ?? ??
P&G?
R&D?
???? ??
R&D?
???? ??
??
+ 20
- 20
+ 20
+80
+ 80
+60
- 20
+60
?? ??? ??? 120 vs. 40
??? ??? ?? ???? ????
???? ???? ?? ? ???!

??? ?? ??? ?? ????? A?? ?
?? ?????? ERP ??? ?? ?????.
A?? ERP? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????,?
???? A?? ????? ?? ??? ????????
? ? ? ?? ??????
?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ????
uestion 1.
Q

uestion 1.
Q?! ???? ?? ?? ????.
A?? ??? ERP? ??? ?? ????,?
???? ERP? ?? ?????? ???? ??
???? ??? ERP? ??? ?? ????,?
A?? ERP? ?? ?????? ???? ??
?? ?? ERP? ?? ?????
?? ?? ?????? B/P? ???? ??
?? ?? ERP ??? ???
??? ????? ?? ?? ??
Case 1.
Case 2.
Case 3.
Case 4.

uestion 1.
Q??? ??????
What��s your decision?

?? ??? ??? ????.
uestion 2.
Q?? ?? ???????

uestion 2.
Q?? ??? ??? ????.
20m
10m

uestion 2.
Q?? ?? ???? ??????
20m
10m
S = ?r2
+ ?r2
= 2?r2
= 4
Z 10
0
p
r2 x2dx
= 157

uestion 2.
Q???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?????
20m
10m

uestion 2.
Q??? ???? ??? ?? ???? ??.
It��s a
Monte-Carlo Simulation

uestion 2.
Q????? ?? ??, ?? ?? ?? ? ?? ???? ?? ??
20
10
20
10
S = 70 + 70
= 140
S = 108

uestion 2.
Q? ??? ?? ?????
20
10
20
10
? ?? ??
????
??? ????
????
??? ????
???

Suitable?
Solution
Best
Solution
uestion 2.
Q?? ???? ??? ???
????
vs.

What I want is...
uestion 3.
Q?????? ?? ???? ??.

What our client wanted.
��?? ?�� ?
?? ? ?? ?? ? ?
????, ??? ?? ?
??? ????? ?
????��
uestion 3.
Q

��?? ?�� ?
?? ? ??? ?
????, ??? ?? ?
??? ????? ?
????��
What sales requested.
uestion 3.
Q

What engineering designed.
uestion 3.
Q

What production ordered.
uestion 3.
Q

What was manufactured.
uestion 3.
Q

What was installed.
uestion 3.
Q

What was our client ACTUALLY wanted?
?
uestion 3.
Q

What our client ACTUALLY wanted is...
uestion 3.
Q

??? ???? ??? ????? ???? ????. ?
??? ???? ???????
?? ???? ??? ???
??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??!
uestion 3.
Q
LT=7days3 11
Current
Lead-time

?? ???? ??? ?? vs. ??? ?? ??
?? ??? ??? ??????
uestion 3.
Q
LT=7days3 1
LT=7days1 13
LT=5days4 6

???? ??? ?? ? ??...
Prionner��s Dilema
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Commnunication Episode
Question 1.
Question 2.
Question 3.
??? ????? ???
?? ???? ???
???? ??? ???
for what?

Do the things !!right
right
1
2

??? ?? ??
??? ?? ?? (AHP)
Today��s Agenda ??? ? ?? ??? ?? ????
A H P
Analytic (???)
Hierarchy (??)
Process (??)
??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??
??? ? ????? ?? ?? ??? ??
??? ???? ??? ??? ??

Q 1. ?? ?? ???????
?? ????
??? ?????

Q 2. ?? ???? ???????
???? ??? ?? ????

AHP is ... ��Ҫ
1. ??? ???? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?? (Planning)
2. ????? ??? ?? ???? ?? ???? ???? ??
3. ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???? ???? ???? ??
?? ??? ??? ???? ?, ??? ????
??? (Systematic), ??? (Hierarchy)?? ???? ?
??? ????? ?
? ?? ?? ?
??? ??? ???? ?? ??.

1. Hierarchies
2. Priorities
3. Consistency
AHP is ... ��

1. Hierarchies ??? ??? ???? ?? ?
??? ??? ??
Goal
Criteria
Alternateives
????? ??
????? ??
??? ??
????? ?? ??? ?? Goal? ??
????? ?? ??? ?? ????, ?
?? ??? ??? ??.
? ??? ??? ?? ?????, ???
?? ??? ?? ???? ???? ??
? ???? ??
????? ??? ??? ??
? ??? 5~9?? ???? ????? ?
? ???? ???? ???
? ? ??? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??
??? ?? ??? ??

2. Priorities ????? ?? ???? ??? ?
??? ???? ??
??? ??
1 ??? ??
3 ?? ? ???
5 ???
7 ?? ???
9 ?? ???
2, 4, 6, 8 ??? ??? ?? ?
1-9 Scale 9? ?? ??
?? ???? ??? ??? 9? ??? ??
Reciprocals ????? ??
A? B?? 3? ?????, B? A?? 1/3? ??
Pairwise Comparison ???? �p��??
Matrix ??? ????, ?? ??? 1:1 ??
??? ??? ??
??? 1 1/2 3
??? 2 1 4
?? 1/3 1/4 1
?) ??? ?? ?, ???/???/??? ??? ??

3. Consistency ?? ? ??? ??? ???? ?
??? ???? ??/??
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
?? ??? ??
??? ???? ?? ?? (1956)
1) Leon Festinger & Henry W. Riecken, & Stanley Schachter, 1956
2) L.Slater, 2005
3) Leon Festinger, 1957
1)
?? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ?
? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???. ??? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?
? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ???? ??.
??? ? ???? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ???, ?
?? ?? ??? ????? ???? ???? ? ?? ??? ????? ??
? ???? ??.
??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?? ?? ????.
Examples
Insuf?cient reward paradigm (2005)
2)
Induced compliance paradigm (1957)
3)

3. Consistency ?? ? ??? ??? ???? ?
??? ???? ??/??
? ??? ???? ???? ????? ???? ??? ?? ?
????? ?.
? ?? ??? ?? ???? ?? ? ??? ??? ??? ???
? ??? ??? ?.
?) ??? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??
?) A=5B, B=2C, then A=10C
????? ?? ?? ??? ???

?
3. Consistency ?? ? ??? ??? ???? ?
??? ???? ??/??
? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???.
A?? ???? ???? ??? H?? ???? ???, ?
???? H?? ???? ??? ?? ???? ??? ?????.
?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?????.
��???? ???? ?? ????.
???? ???? ???? ?? ????.
???? ???? ?? ?? ?? ??? ?????��
? ??? ?? ???? ??? ? ? ?????
????? ???? ??? ???? ??
??? > ???
??? > ???
??? = ???

? ??
???? ??? ??? ?????.
3?? ?? ?, ????? ???? ?????.
??? ??? ?? ??
????
????
??????
??
??
??

? ??
? ?? ?? ??
?? ???? ????
?? ?? ??
???? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
???? ?? ?? ?? ??
???? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
?? ??/?? ??? ????? ??? ??? ???.

? ??
? Hierarchies
???? ??
???? ???? ???? ??
Goal
Criteria
Alternatives

? ??
? Criteria? ??
?? ?? ??? ????? ????????
?? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ?????.
??? ?? ??? ??? ��0��: ?? ???? ??? ?
1. ????? ????? ?? 2? ?????.?
?? ??, ????? ????? ?? 1/2? ???? ???.
2. ????? ?????? ??? ?? 3? ?????.
3. ????? ?????? ??? ?? ? ? ??????
????: ???? = 2:1
????:?????? = 3:1
????:?????? = 6:1

? ??
??? ??? ???? ?? ??? ??...
???? ???? ??????
???? 1 3
???? 2 1 6
???? ?? 1
??? ? ?? ??? ???? ��Reciprocal�� ??????
Criteria? ??

? ??
???? ? ?? ????...
???? ???? ??????
???? 1 1/2 3
???? 2 1 6
???? ?? 1/3 1/6 1
?? ??? ?? ?? ???? ???????.
Criteria? ??

? ??
??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??...
????? 3:6:1? ??? ???? ????? ??
Criteria? ??
???? ???? ??????
???? 1 1/2 3
???? 2 1 6
???? ?? 1/3 1/6 1
?? ???
1.5 0.3
3 0.6
0.5 0.1
5 1??

? ??
????? ??? ??? ?????.
??? ??, ??? ??? ????... ...
??!!
?? ???
1.5 0.3
3 0.6
0.5 0.1
5 1
1. ????
2. ?? ??
3. ??? Matrix

? ??
????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?????.
?? ????? ???, ??? ?? ???.
??!!
n RI
?
1 0
2 0
3 0.58
4 0.9
5 1.12
6 1.24
7 1.32
8 1.41
9 1.45
10 1.49
RI ??? ??
0
B
B
B
@
w1
w2
...
wn
1
C
C
C
A
T 0
B
B
B
@
a11 a12 . . . a1n
a21 a22 . . . a2n
...
...
...
...
an1 an2 . . . ann
1
C
C
C
A
max ???? ???
??? ??CI
CI = ? =
max n
n 1
??? ??CR
CR =
CI
RI
CR < 0.1 ? ??
??? ? ?? ??? ??
max =
nX
i=1
?
ai1w1 + ai2w2 + �� + ainwn
wi
��
n

? ??
??? ? ???? ??? ????
??? ??? ?? ?????.
??!!
n RI
?
1 0
2 0
3 0.58
4 0.9
5 1.12
6 1.24
7 1.32
8 1.41
9 1.45
10 1.49
RI ??? ??
max ???? ???
??? ??CI
??? ??CR
CR = 0 ???,?
?? ??? ? ?? ??
max = 3.000
CI = ?
=
3 3
2
= 0
CR =
CI
RI
=
0
0.58
= 0

? ??
????? ????? ??? ?????.
????? ??????? ???? ???? ?????.
??!!
???? ???? ??????
???? 1 1/2 3
???? 2 1 1
???? ?? 1/3 1 1
?? ???
1.5 0.415
1.333 0.369
0.778 0.215
3.611 1??

? ??
??? ? ? ??? ??...
??? ??, ?? ??? ??? ? ????.
??!!
n RI
?
1 0
2 0
3 0.58
4 0.9
5 1.12
6 1.24
7 1.32
8 1.41
9 1.45
10 1.49
RI ??? ??
max ???? ???
??? ??CI
??? ??CR
CR > 0.1 ???,?
??? ? ?? ??
CI = ?
=
0.3674
2
max = 3.3674
CR =
CI
RI
=
0.1837
0.58
= 0.3167

? ??
? Priorities
???? ???? ??????
???? 1 1/2 3
???? 2 1 6
???? ?? 1/3 1/6 1
CR=0.000
???
??
?? ?? ??
?? 1 3 3
?? 1/3 1 1
?? 1/3 1 1
???
??
?? ?? ??
?? 1 1/3 1
?? 3 1 3
?? 1 1/3 1
???
??
?? ?? ??
?? 1 3 1
?? 1/3 1 1/3
?? 1 3 1
CR=0.000 CR=0.000 CR=0.000

? ??
? Priorities
Criteria ? Alternatives? ??
?? ?? ?? ??
?? 1 3 3
?? 1/3 1 1
?? 1/3 1 1
???? A B C
A 1 1/3 1
B 3 1 3
C 1 1/3 1
???? A B C
A 1 3 1
B 1/3 1 1/3
C 1 3 1
?? ???
2.333 0.6
0.778 0.2
0.778 0.2
?? ???
0.778 0.2
2.333 0.6
0.778 0.2
?? ???
1.667 0.429
0.556 0.143
1.667 0.429

? ??
? Priorities
?? ???? ???? ??
0.3 0.6 0.1
?? 0.6 0.2 0.2
?? 0.2 0.6 0.2
?? 0.429 0.143 0.429
?? ??: Criteria ? Alternatives? ?? ?? ??
???? Rank
0.36 2
0.48 1
0.343 3
??? ?? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ????? ?.

? ??
????? ??? ??? ????? ???.
?? ??? ?????????
A
B
C
?? ?? ?? ?? ????
??
??
????
??
??
??

? ??
? Hierarchies
?? ??
?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??
A B C
Goal
Criteria
Alternatives

? ??
? Priorities
?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??
?? 1 1/2 1 3 1 1/3
?? 2 1 2 3 2 2
???? 1 1/2 1 2 1 2
?? 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 1/2 1/2
?? 1 1/2 1 2 1 1
?? 3 1/2 1/2 2 1 1
?? A B C
A 1 1/3 1/2
B 3 1 3
C 2 1/3 1
?? A B C
A 1 1 1
B 1 1 1
C 1 1 1
???? A B C
A 1 5 1
B 1/5 1 1/5
C 1 5 1
?? A B C
A 1 3 7
B 1/3 1 1/5
C 1/7 5 1
?? A B C
A 1 1/2 1
B 2 1 2
C 1 1/2 1
?? A B C
A 1 6 4
B 1/6 1 1/3
C 1/4 3 1

? ??
? Priorities
?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??
?? 1 1/2 1 3 1 1/3
?? 2 1 2 3 2 2
???? 1 1/2 1 2 1 2
?? 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 1/2 1/2
?? 1 1/2 1 2 1 1
?? 3 1/2 1/2 2 1 1
???? ???
0.891 0.137
1.906 0.294
1.122 0.173
0.49 0.076
1 0.154
1.07 0.156
6.48 1??
Criteria ?? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??
�� ??? ??? ????, ????, ??? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???.

? ??
? Priorities
Criteria ? Alternatives? ??
?? A B C
A 1 1/3 1/2
B 3 1 3
C 2 1/3 1
?? A B C
A 1 1 1
B 1 1 1
C 1 1 1
???? A B C
A 1 5 1
B 1/5 1 1/5
C 1 5 1
?? A B C
A 1 3 7
B 1/3 1 1/5
C 1/7 5 1
?? A B C
A 1 1/2 1
B 2 1 2
C 1 1/2 1
?? A B C
A 1 6 4
B 1/6 1 1/3
C 1/4 3 1
???? ????
0.55 0.157
2.08 0.594
0.874 0.249
???? ????
1.71 0.455
0.342 0.091
1.71 0.455
???? ????
0.794 0.25
1.587 0.5
0.794 0.25
???? ????
1 0.333
1 0.333
1 0.333
???? ????
2.795 0.68
0.405 0.1
0.894 0.22
???? ????
2.884 0.691
0.382 0.091
0.909 0.218

? ??
? Priorities
?? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??
0.137 0.294 0.173 0.076 0.154 0.165
A 0.157 0.333 0.455 0.68 0.25 0.691
B 0.594 0.333 0.091 0.1 0.5 0.091
C 0.249 0.333 0.455 0.22 0.25 0.218
?? ??: Criteria ? Alternatives? ?? ?? ??
???? Rank
0.402 1
0.295 3
0.302 2
?? ?? ??? ?? ?? A ??? ???? ?? ???

? ??
? Consistency
Consistency Index (CI)? ?? ??? ???? ??
CI? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ??.
A? B?? ???? B? C?? ????? ??? ?, A? C?? ? ????? ??????
??? CI? ???? ???, ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?.
?? ? ??? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??.
?? CI? 0.1 ???? ???? ??? ??? ? ??? ?? ?.
CI =
!max ! n
n !1
CR =
CI
RI
? CI < 0.1? ?? ??
? CR < 0.1? ?? ??
? ��? eigenvalue (???)
? RI? ???? (Random Index)? ?? ???? ????
? ??? ???? ???? CI? ??? ?.
? ?? Crieteria? CI? 0.0631? ??? ???? ???.

?? ??? ?? ?? ???? ????
???? ?? ?? ?? ??
Source: Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., and Kleinschmidt, E.J.,��Best practices for managing R&D portfolios��, Research-Technology Management, 41, 4, July-Aug. 1998, 20-33.
???
NPV,ROI,EVA,PaybackPeriod
?? ??? ??
????? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??

???, ??? ??? ??? ??
???? ?? ??, ???? ??? ??
?? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???? ?? ?? ?????
???? ?? 3.76 ?? 4.08 3.95 4.11 ??
??? ????? ?? 3.37 ?? 3.77 3.82 ?? 3.7
??? ??? ?? ?? 3.5 3.72 ?? 3.59 3 ??
????? ????? ?? 2.79 ?? 3.22 ?? 3.13 2.9
???? ? ?? 2.8 ?? 3.08 3.2 ?? 3.2 ??
??? ?? ???? 2.5 2.93 ?? 2.7 2.25
Source: Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., and Kleinschmidt, E.J.,��Best practices for managing R&D portfolios��, Research-Technology Management, 41, 4, July-Aug. 1998, 20-33.

Questions,
Q & A
Answers

My wish,
Your success!!
Thank you for your patient listening
Jul. 2011, Jaeho BAE @ Osan

??? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
End of Document
Copyright
??
?2011
?by
?JHBae@Osan.

�ݺ�ߣ

???????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ??????

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