ݺߣ

ݺߣShare a Scribd company logo
Varför stigande
arbetslöshet och varsel?
        Sandro Scocco
Varför stigande
    arbetslöshet?

•   Svagare exportefterfrågan (stigande
    arbetslöshet)
•   Budgeten också ”svagt åtstramande”
    enligt finansdepartmentet (stigande
    arbetslöshet)
•   Satsning på 16 miljarder i
    bolagsskattesänkning inom
    budgetram åtstramande effekt på
    efterfrågan (stigande arbetslöshet).
•   Reformutrymme = reala sänkningar av
    a-kassa, sjukersättning, kommunala
    bidrag, studielån, m.m.
Multiplikatorn årets överraskning (för vissa)
    Offentlig sektors netto utlåning/upplåning                                                             Arbetslöshet
                       procent av BNP (IMF)                                                       procent av arbetskraften (IMF)




EU definition: net borrowing (+)/net lending (-) of general government is the difference between the revenue and the expenditure of the general
government sector. The general government sector comprises the following subsectors: central government, state government, local government, and
social security funds. GDP used as a denominator is the gross domestic product at current market prices.
Avbetalningar betalar inte statsskulden
– det gör tillväxt!
(Källa: Göran Zettergren, TCO)
Tyskland ”begger thy neighbour” med
interna devalveringar!
Unit labour cost Index 1999 = 100

      150                                                             150
                   France
                   Germany
                   Spain
      140          Greece                                             140
                   Italy
                   Ireland
                   Portugal
      130                                                             130
                   United Kingdom
                   Denmark


      120                                                             120



      110                                                             110



      100                                                             100



       90                                                             90
            99          01          03   05   07      09      11


                 Note. In national currencies (i.e UK), Källa: OECD
Tyskland ”begger thy neighbour” med
interna devalveringar!
Unit labour cost Index 1999 = 100

      150                                                             150
                   France
                   Germany
                   Spain
      140          Greece                                             140
                   Italy
                   Ireland
                   Portugal
      130                                                             130
                   United Kingdom
                   Denmark


      120                                                             120



      110                                                             110



      100                                                             100



       90                                                             90
            99          01          03   05   07      09      11


                 Note. In national currencies (i.e UK), Källa: OECD

More Related Content

More from Global Utmaning (20)

Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic exampleCross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Global Utmaning
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and ConnectedNordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Global Utmaning
Combating the Debt Addiction
Combating the Debt AddictionCombating the Debt Addiction
Combating the Debt Addiction
Global Utmaning
Combating the Debt Addiction
Combating the Debt Addiction Combating the Debt Addiction
Combating the Debt Addiction
Global Utmaning
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspectiveChallenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Global Utmaning
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainabilityEd Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Global Utmaning
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reformsEnergiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Global Utmaning
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and ConnectedNordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Global Utmaning
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex världAmy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Global Utmaning
Trust in a green economy
Trust in a green economyTrust in a green economy
Trust in a green economy
Global Utmaning
Research questions for a green, inclusive economy
Research questions for a green, inclusive economyResearch questions for a green, inclusive economy
Research questions for a green, inclusive economy
Global Utmaning
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
Global Utmaning
Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic exampleCross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Cross-border cooperation in the electricity sector - the Nordic example
Global Utmaning
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and ConnectedNordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Global Utmaning
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspectiveChallenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Challenges with high household debt levels - a Swedish perspective
Global Utmaning
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainabilityEd Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Ed Groark presents State of the World 2014: Governing for sustainability
Global Utmaning
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reformsEnergiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Energiewende - Status of the German Energy reforms
Global Utmaning
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and ConnectedNordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Nordic Energy ways in Europe – Clean, Competitive and Connected
Global Utmaning
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex världAmy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Amy Rader Olsson - Ledarskap för hållbarhet i en komplex värld
Global Utmaning
Research questions for a green, inclusive economy
Research questions for a green, inclusive economyResearch questions for a green, inclusive economy
Research questions for a green, inclusive economy
Global Utmaning
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
A critical review and considerations: Green economy, what is it?
Global Utmaning

Varför stigande arbetslöshet och varsel?

  • 1. Varför stigande arbetslöshet och varsel? Sandro Scocco
  • 2. Varför stigande arbetslöshet? • Svagare exportefterfrågan (stigande arbetslöshet) • Budgeten också ”svagt åtstramande” enligt finansdepartmentet (stigande arbetslöshet) • Satsning på 16 miljarder i bolagsskattesänkning inom budgetram åtstramande effekt på efterfrågan (stigande arbetslöshet). • Reformutrymme = reala sänkningar av a-kassa, sjukersättning, kommunala bidrag, studielån, m.m.
  • 3. Multiplikatorn årets överraskning (för vissa) Offentlig sektors netto utlåning/upplåning Arbetslöshet procent av BNP (IMF) procent av arbetskraften (IMF) EU definition: net borrowing (+)/net lending (-) of general government is the difference between the revenue and the expenditure of the general government sector. The general government sector comprises the following subsectors: central government, state government, local government, and social security funds. GDP used as a denominator is the gross domestic product at current market prices.
  • 4. Avbetalningar betalar inte statsskulden – det gör tillväxt! (Källa: Göran Zettergren, TCO)
  • 5. Tyskland ”begger thy neighbour” med interna devalveringar! Unit labour cost Index 1999 = 100 150 150 France Germany Spain 140 Greece 140 Italy Ireland Portugal 130 130 United Kingdom Denmark 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Note. In national currencies (i.e UK), Källa: OECD
  • 6. Tyskland ”begger thy neighbour” med interna devalveringar! Unit labour cost Index 1999 = 100 150 150 France Germany Spain 140 Greece 140 Italy Ireland Portugal 130 130 United Kingdom Denmark 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Note. In national currencies (i.e UK), Källa: OECD