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December 2019: Listings scarcity alert - Toronto real estate market charts
- 1. Toronto Real Estate Market Charts December 2019 Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70
- 2. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number youre seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Torontos monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREBs broader GTA-wide aggregate figures. I also separate Torontos two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends. indicator points to heating up (favours sellers), denotes cooling down (favours buyers)
- 3. Detached $1,363K / Semi $1,004K / Row $956K Dec vs. '18: $196K (18.4%) Dec vs. '14: $414K (49%) 5 year CAGR: 8.3% - Dec up very high percentage YoY, but due to anomaly low Dec 2018 - Over last 5 years, prices have grown $6.9K/month 416 Average Sold Price (dollar volume 歎 number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $656K / Condo Townhouse $643K Dec vs. '18: $53K (8.7%) Dec vs. '14: $266K (69%) 5 year CAGR: 11.0% - Condos havent had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (55 straight months and 75 of last 76) - Over last 5 years, prices have grown $4.4K/month 1119 1223 1184 12641282 1243 11541163 1269124912591264 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 544 584 597 610 608 613 591 590 623 609 602 602 601 618 610 640 649 645 635 621 646 670 660 654 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- 4. 416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Dec vs. '18: 26.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 4%) YTD vs. '18: 15% - Big turnaround from historically low Q1, with 8 of last 9 months +10% or more over last year. - July and Sept touched 7 year averages, but last 3 months have been -1%, -6%, -4% Dec vs. '18: 7.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 7% ) YTD vs. '18: 2% - After stretch of 21 of 23 months being lower sales than previous year, are now at 8 of the last 9 being higher 510 720 1016 1186 1320 1252 940 855 985 1305 981 501 479 687 971 1366 1687 1446 1225 917 1289 1450 1137 635 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 927 1166 1547 1835 1989 1725 1852 1602 1680 1811 1555 1025 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 5. 416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) Dec vs. '18: 21.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 6%) YTD vs. '18: 1% - Has been above 7 Yr Avg. all year before November - In August was 1.3% more listings than 2018, now 3 months later has taken dive to -21.9% lower Dec vs. '18: 19.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 38%) YTD vs. '18: 2% - First 6 months had higher inventory than last year, last 5 months has tightened - Lowest December since 1999 (1,113) - Active Listings around 1,000 less than Dec 7 Yr Avg 1592 1792 2118 2633 29942918 2463 2147 2744 2510 1901 1046 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 19602114 2427 2699 30102949 2769 2448 2707 2442 1994 1297 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Condos 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 6. 416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end 歎 sales for month) Dec vs. '18: 1.4 months (-46%) Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.2 months (-12%) - Last 8 months were lower than 2018 - December was first month this year to dip below 7 year average Dec vs. '18: 0.5 months (-29%) Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.9 months (-41%) - 6 months in row < 2018 after first 6 months all above - Below 2.000 43 of last 45 months - Record 33 months in row condos < houses. In 254 months before March 2017, this only happened 19 times in total. 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 7. 416 Average Days On Market (days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Dec vs. '18: 1.5 days (6%) Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 3.6 days (14%) - September was only month this year below 7-year average Dec vs. '18: 0.9 days (-4%) Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 4.0 days (-14%) - Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has stayed low since 31 23 16 16 15 17 22 23 19 18 21 27 31 22 18 16 15 16 21 25 17 18 21 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 27 22 17 16 17 17 20 23 23 21 22 26 27 21 19 17 17 19 21 22 20 20 21 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 8. 416 New Listings (number of new MLS #s during the month unfortunately includes re-listed properties) century21.ca/scott.ingram Dec vs. '18: 8.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 22%) YTD vs. '18: 4% - After 7 months in a row within 5% of 7-year averages, dropped down to -17% in Nov and -22% in Dec - After Sept was +8% YTD, then dropped last 3 months - terminations and re-listings distort this stat Dec vs. '18: 3.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 22%) YTD vs. '18: 0% - Concerningly low - 6 of last 8 months lower than last year - Have to go back to 2001 to find Dec with lower new listings (781) 1215 1376 1939 2759 3259 2575 1961 1512 2923 2385 1409 4730 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 19131905 2562 2944 3359 27932779 2191 2855 2561 1877 873 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 9. 416 Sold Over Asking (properties that sold at 101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% or more of asking Dec vs. '18: 9 pp Month-over-month: 3 pp - 17 of last 18 months higher than prior year - Full year numbers: 2015 47% 2016 60% 2017 49% 2018 34% 2019 37% 101% or more of asking Dec vs. '18: 10 pp Month-over-month: 2 pp - Condos turned it up last 6 months to be > 2018 - Days of SOA for a condo being just for unique properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone (2016 21% 2017 42% 2018 27% 2019 27%) 73% 81% 78% 19% 32% 37% 41% 40% 35% 27% 25% 35% 37% 31% 23% 25% 34% 36% 43% 41% 37% 34% 29% 42% 41% 35% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Houses 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg 71% 74% 22% 34% 32% 29% 25% 21% 24% 24% 22% 16% 21% 24% 26% 31% 29% 28% 25% 25% 28% 27% 28% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Condos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
- 10. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio (average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment) century21.ca/scott.ingram Current ratio: 2.08 Month-over-month: 0.02 - Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13 - Median since Jan 1996 = 2.06 - Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72 Current dollar gap: $707K Prior month dollar gap: $701K ( $6K) Prior year dollar gap: $547K ( $160K) 2 years prior dollar gap: $712K ( $5K) 1.78 3.06 2.08 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio of Avg Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt
- 11. 416 Price CAGRs Freehold (Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago) 20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.07%; MoM change 7 bps 20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.87%; MoM change 2 bps 8.76% 6.96% 7.07% 10.93% 6.89% 13.90% 6.05% 8.25% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Freeholds - Average Price CAGRs Houses - 20 yr Houses - 10 yr Houses - 5 yr
- 12. 416 Price CAGRs Condo (Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago) 5.74% 7.28% 6.87% 8.66% 3.75% 11.26% 11.01% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Condos - Average Price CAGRs Condos - 20 yr Condos - 10 yr Condos - 5 yr 20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.07%; MoM change 7 bps 20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.87%; MoM change 2 bps
- 13. 416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 39% 5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47% 10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 50% 15 years ago: Condos 43% / Houses 55% 20 years ago: Condos 40% / Houses 60% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a starter home and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 41% of 2018 sales transactions, they were 58% of dollar volume (2018: 38% v. 55%, 2017: 38% v. 59%, 2016: 35% v. 64%). Houses 41% Condos 58% Share of Transactions - last 12 months Detached 70% Semi 22% Row 8% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 86% Townhouse 14% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
- 14. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is power. So I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because better information = better decisions. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make trust it with an accountant. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: