تحليل ماركوف
Download as PPTX, PDF3 likes709 views
The document describes a 3-step probabilistic model. In the first step, it calculates the probabilities of three outcomes based on initial probabilities. In the second step, it factors in uncertainty and calculates new probabilities. In the third step, it takes the results from step two and models how probabilities change based on additional factors. The document provides the specific probabilities and calculations for each step.
More Related Content
Viewers also liked (14)
More from Muhammad Hassan (16)
تحليل ماركوف
- 3. • • • •
- 4. • – – – • – – – • •
- 5. • • •
- 6. • • - • •
- 7. 0.05 0.05 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.75 0.15 0.1 -
- 8. • 6 • • • (0.9*0.4)+(0.1*0.35)+(0.1*0.25)=0.420 (42%) • • (0.05*0.4)+(0.8*0.35)+(0.15*0.25)=0.3375 (33.75%) • • 0.05*0.4)+(0.1*0.35)+(0.75*0.25)=0.2425 (24.25%)
- 9. • 2% • • 1.25% • 0.75%
- 10. • • (0.9*0.42)+(0.1*0.33.75)+(0.1*0.2425)=0.436 (43.6%) • • (0.05*0.42)+(0.8*0.3375)+(0.15*0.2425)=0.3274 (32.74%) • • 0.05*0.42)+(0.1*0.3375)+(0.75*0.2425)=0.2366
- 11. • 1.6% • • 1.1 % •
- 12. • 77% 14% 09% 05% 86% 09%
- 13. • 31% • 31% • 38% • • •
- 14. • • • • (0.31*0.77)+(0.31*0.05)+(0.38*0.07)=0.28 (28%) • • (0.31*0.09)+(0.31*0.86)+(0.38*0.02)=0.30 (30%) • • (0.31*0.14)+(0.31*0.09)+(0.38*0.91)=0.42 (42%)
- 15. • • • 0.30*0.77)+(0.28*0.05)+(0.42*0.07)=0.27 (27%) • • 0.30*0.09)+(0.28*0.86)+(0.42*0.02)=0.28 (28%) • • 0.30*0.14)+(0.28*0.09)+(0.42*0.91)=0.45 (45%)