Derailed Crisis Plans
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The document discusses five false assumptions companies often make about crisis management: 1. Having an operational plan is not the same as being prepared for an organizational crisis that violates public trust. 2. One size does not fit all - operational plans cannot contain an organizational crisis in the same way. 3. People are not entirely rational and emotions often overwhelm reason in a crisis. 4. Experienced executives may default to habitual responses that make the crisis worse rather than knowing what to do. 5. Behaviors that led to success in normal times will not necessarily work during a crisis when the rules have changed.
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Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else? 2
Cognitive Biases - Definitions 2
Bounded Rationality (Tversky, Kahneman) 6
Representativeness 6
Availability Bias 7
Adjustment and Anchoring 8
Cultural Cognition (Kahan, Braman) 8
DEMS3706 Lecture #1 10
DEMS3706 Lecture #2 (Cultural Cognition) 11
Module Two - Uncertainty & Prediction 13
Prediction, Cognition and the Brain (Bubic, von Cramon, Schubotz) 13
A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (Gigerenzer et al.) 16
Dont Believe the COVID-19 Models (Tufekci) 18
Lecture #1 20
Lecture #2 21
Module Three - Fear, Anxiety, and All Things Scary 25
Lecture #1 25
Module Four - Decision-making Under Pressure 29
Lecture #1 29
Module Five - Expertise & Thinking as an Institution 33
54Lecture #1 33
Module Six - PTSD & Mental Health 35
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Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else?Cognitive Biases - Definitions
Here are two images of cognitive biases of the ones that are required from the reading guide. The examples are simple and easy to follow:
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Bias
Definition
Bias in Action (how this bias applies to disasters)-
Anchoring
This bias is described by individuals relying on an initial piece of information to make decisions. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Nice! Think of the example I gave during tutorial: students first were asked to think of the last two digits of their student number, then guess the number of countries in Africa. The lower the student #, the lower the guess. The higher the student #, the higher the guess. They got /anchored/ towards their initial number!
-During a large-scale disaster, a country may choose to proceed in a manner similar to a different country that went through the same experience, instead of searching for additional information to create the most successful plan. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Yes, these are good: early reactions to the pandemic will shape later ones... although this is also an example of priming.
If you wanted an example that's specific to anchoring, think about the magic "2 meter" number for physical distancing in lines. That number being introduced so early has powerfully affected what we see as "reasonable" physical distancing amounts... if it had started at 5m, we would be in a very different world of assumptions!
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Authority bias
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AP/DEMS3706 Note Share
Hello everyone! Think of this space as a crowdsourced notebook . . . everyone is welcome to take and share DEMS3706 lecture and reading notes here. -[;.
Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else? 2
Cognitive Biases - Definitions 2
Bounded Rationality (Tversky, Kahneman) 6
Representativeness 6
Availability Bias 7
Adjustment and Anchoring 8
Cultural Cognition (Kahan, Braman) 8
DEMS3706 Lecture #1 10
DEMS3706 Lecture #2 (Cultural Cognition) 11
Module Two - Uncertainty & Prediction 13
Prediction, Cognition and the Brain (Bubic, von Cramon, Schubotz) 13
A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? (Gigerenzer et al.) 16
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Lecture #1 20
Lecture #2 21
Module Three - Fear, Anxiety, and All Things Scary 25
Lecture #1 25
Module Four - Decision-making Under Pressure 29
Lecture #1 29
Module Five - Expertise & Thinking as an Institution 33
54Lecture #1 33
Module Six - PTSD & Mental Health 35
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Module One - Rational, Irrational, or Something Else?Cognitive Biases - Definitions
Here are two images of cognitive biases of the ones that are required from the reading guide. The examples are simple and easy to follow:
12 Cognitive Biases That Can Impact Search Committee Decisions
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/50-cognitive-biases-in-the-modern-world/
Bias
Definition
Bias in Action (how this bias applies to disasters)-
Anchoring
This bias is described by individuals relying on an initial piece of information to make decisions. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Nice! Think of the example I gave during tutorial: students first were asked to think of the last two digits of their student number, then guess the number of countries in Africa. The lower the student #, the lower the guess. The higher the student #, the higher the guess. They got /anchored/ towards their initial number!
-During a large-scale disaster, a country may choose to proceed in a manner similar to a different country that went through the same experience, instead of searching for additional information to create the most successful plan. Comment by Eric Kennedy: Yes, these are good: early reactions to the pandemic will shape later ones... although this is also an example of priming.
If you wanted an example that's specific to anchoring, think about the magic "2 meter" number for physical distancing in lines. That number being introduced so early has powerfully affected what we see as "reasonable" physical distancing amounts... if it had started at 5m, we would be in a very different world of assumptions!
-This could also have been observed in how different countries proceeded with closures and containment during the pandemic.
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CIS502 discussion post responses.
Disaster Recovery
Disaster recovery has been the topic of study this week. What do you think is the most difficult and expensive disaster to plan for? Do you think companies plan adequately? In your experience (or research if you have no experience) what aspect is most lacking in corporate planning? Why do you think this is? What would you do to advise leadership in your company to prepare for a disaster? Be specific and explain your thought processes on this subject based on your learning.
JPs post states the following:Top of Form
Disaster Recovery
Disaster recovery has been the topic of study this week. What do you think is the most difficult and expensive disaster to plan for? Do you think companies plan adequately? In your experience (or research if you have no experience) what aspect is most lacking in corporate planning? Why do you think this is? What would you do to advise leadership in your company to prepare for a disaster? Be specific and explain your thought processes on this subject based on your learning.
I believe a natural disaster is the most expensive disaster to plan for. Natural disasters could occur at any point and time and location has a lot to do with it. Depending on the businesses geographic location it may have to deal with floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, electrical storms etc. The companies that I have had the pleasure to work for are located globally and have well established disaster recovery plans for natural disasters known to happen in that region. Because of the unpredictable nature natural disasters bring, not one company has a disaster recovery plan that is readily available for every situation. Funding for possible disasters that have a low chance of occurring may be a lacking aspect in corporate planning, since at the end of the day in business investments must make sense. Also advising leadership on shortages or delays of necessary materials can keep bandages, disinfectant, and medicine cabinets up to date in case of an unexpected emergencies.
Reference
https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/effects-lack-planning-organization-11394.html
KFs post states the following:Top of Form
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Effective Crisis Communication
Chapter 1 The Conceptual Foundation
Ulmer, R., Sellnow, T., and Seeger, M. (2019). Effective crisis communication: Moving from crisis to opportunity. Sage Publications. Thousand Oaks, CA.
Importance of Crisis Communication Skills
No community, organization, public or private is immune from crises.
The need for understanding effective crisis communication has increased in demand.
Cyber attacks, public relations disasters, natural disasters, corporate, government, and private mistakes.
Because of the prevalence of crises, crisis communication skills are some of the most sought after.
Subsequent slides offer examples of crisis situations
Sports example requiring crisis communication skills
3
Business example requiring crisis communication skills
4
Government example requiring crisis communication skills
5
Political example requiring crisis communication skills
6
Natural disaster example requiring crisis communication skills
7
Defining Crisis Communication
Bad experiences are not crises
Hermann (1963) identified 3 characteristics
Surprise
Threat
Short Response Time
Traditional Definition of Crisis
Surprise
Even natural disasters such as flooding and fires do not count unless they come with an intensity that was unpredicted or beyond expectations of government officials.
Threat
Crises involve threats beyond the normal problems faced.
Can affect an organizations financial security, customers, residents nearby, and others.
Short Response Time
Organizations must provide effective communication immediately after the initial crisis.
Difficult because in the immediate aftermath little is often known about the cause of the crisis.
Only a short window to take control and set the tone for response and recovery.
Expanding the definition of Crisis Communication
Unexpected Could not have anticipated or planned for.
Nonroutine Events that cannot be managed by normal procedures and often require unique or extreme measures.
Produces Uncertainty Cannot be aware of all causes and effects and investigations and efforts to reduce uncertainty may have to continue for months or years.
Creates Opportunities To learn, make strategic changes, grow, or develop new competitive advantages.
Threat to image, reputation, or high-priority goals Can be intense enough to permanently damage or destroy the organization.
Types of Crises
Intentional
Terrorism
Sabotage
Workplace violence
Poor employee relationships
Poor risk management
Unethical leadership
Unintentional
Natural disasters
Disease outbreaks
Unforeseeable technical interactions
Product failure
Downturns in the economy
Types of Crises
Intentional
Terrorism
Sabotage
Workplace violence
Poor employee relationships
Poor risk management
Unethical leadership
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/10/volkswagen-emissions-scandal-systematic-failures-hans-dieter-potsch
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3) Stages of disaster management include pre-disaster planning, responding to the disaster itself, and post-disaster recovery. Effective communication and establishing crisis management teams are important.What to Do When Bad News Hits Your Organization
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SPOTLIGHT ON REINVENTION
1767 JanFeb10 Margolis Layout.indd 861767 JanFeb10 Margolis Layout.indd 86 12/8/09 8:59:50 AM12/8/09 8:59:50 AM
Joshua D. Margolis
( [email油protected]) is
an associate professor of
business administration
at Harvard Business School.
Paul G. Stoltz ([email油protected]
peaklearning.com) is the
founder and CEO of PEAK
Learning, a global research
and consulting fi rm based
in San Luis Obispo,
California.
Heres a way to understandand redirect
your instinctive reaction to crises.
by Joshua D. Margolis and Paul G. Stoltz
T
hings are humming along,
and then: A top client calls
and says, Were switch-
ing suppliers, starting
next month. Im afraid
your company no longer
fi gures into our plans. Or
three colleagues, all of
whom joined the organi-
zation around the same
time you did, are up for promotionbut you arent.
Or your team loses another good person in a third
round of layoff s; weak markets or no, you still need
to make your numbers, but now youll have to rely
heavily on two of the most uncooperative members
of the group.
So how do you react? Are you angry and disap-
pointed, ranting and raving to anyone who will lis-
ten? Do you feel dejected and victimized, resigned
to the situation even as you deny the cold reality
of it? Or do you experience a rush of excitement
perhaps tinged with fearbecause you sense an op-
portunity to develop your skills and talents in ways
youd never imagined? The truth is, youve probably
reacted in all those ways when confronted with a
challengemaybe even cycling through multiple
emotional states in the course of dealing with one
really big mess.
Whatever your initial reaction, however, the chal-
lenge is to turn a negative experience into a produc-
tive onethat is, to counter adversity with resilience.
Psychological resilience is the capacity to respond
quickly and constructively to crises. Its a central dy-
namic in most survival stories, such as those of the
shell-shocked individuals and organizations that ral-
lied in the wake of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. But
HBR.ORG
JanuaryFebruary 2010 Harvard Business Review 87
1767 JanFeb10 Margolis Layout.indd 871767 JanFeb10 Margolis Layout.indd 87 12/8/09 8:59:59 AM12/8/09 8:59:59 AM
ing a series of pointed questions, managers can
grasp their own and their direct reports habits of
thought and help reframe negative events in pro-
ductive ways. With the four lenses as a guide, they
can learn to stop feeling paralyzed by crisis, respond
with strength and creativity, and help their direct re-
ports do the same.
When Adversity Strikes
Most of us go with our gut when something bad hap-
pens. Deeply ingrained habits and beliefs sap our en-
ergy and keep us from acting constructively..Snite Museum Essay Contest. Online assignment writing service.
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Research Report tech writingJessica Aston
油
The document provides a summary of three case studies on public relations crises: the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the 1982 Chicago Tylenol murders, and the 2015 Germanwings plane crash. It analyzes how each company handled the crisis in terms of reacting, researching, responding, and showing remorse. BP is presented as an example of poor crisis management, failing to empathize with victims and showing indifference through statements by the former CEO. In contrast, Tylenol handled the crisis well through effective communication and recall of products, maintaining public trust. Germanwings is still ongoing so public opinion is still forming. The document advocates for prepared crisis management plans and responsible, empathetic responses to prevent further reputationalSpecial Situations
Special SituationsJoshua Slavitt
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Setting up an effective crisis management process is easier than you think and just as easy to effectively maintain.Risk Taking To Get Ahead
Risk Taking To Get AheadChelse Benham
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Researchers have found that people are not always risk-averse and are willing to take risks if they perceive it is appropriate. However, most people will reject a fair gamble involving a large asset. While some people prefer risk, others avoid it due to a fear of loss and "decision regret" from obsessing over what could have been if a different choice was made. Experts suggest reducing risk-averse tendencies by gaining knowledge in areas like personal biases, statistical probabilities, expert opinions, and potential weaknesses to make better risk-reward decisions. Reframing choices in new ways and sticking to areas of expertise can also improve decision making.Risk taking to get ahead
Risk taking to get aheadChelse Benham
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Researchers have found that people are not always risk-averse and are willing to take risks if they perceive it as appropriate. However, most people will reject a fair gamble involving a large asset. While some people prefer risk, others avoid it due to a fear of loss and "decision regret" from obsessing over what could have been if a different choice was made. Experts suggest managing risk through gaining knowledge in areas like understanding personal biases, statistical probabilities, expert opinions, and potential weaknesses in a situation. Reframing choices and being aware of cognitive biases can also help improve risk-reward decision making.How the wise_decide
How the wise_decidessanabani
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1) The document summarizes key decision-making principles from interviews with business leaders, including going directly to information sources, encouraging dissenting views, managing risk aversion, using vision to guide decisions, listening with purpose, and being transparent about decisions.
2) It provides an example of John Whitehead of Goldman Sachs who resisted the profitable trend of hostile takeovers due to ethical concerns, gaining client trust over time.
3) The principles are presented as universal for wise decision-making, including going to primary sources, debating with diverse experts, addressing risk fear, using vision to prioritize objectives, gathering necessary information, and explaining decisions transparently to facilitate implementation.