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Climate Change and the Economic Crisis:
  Is prosperity possible without growth?

           Dr. Peter A. Victor

            26 March 2010
Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance,
reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?




                                   LowGrow
                                    Canada
You bet!




           LowGrow
            Canada
Business as usual

                                   GDP per Capita

                     GHG Emissions

         Poverty




               Debt to GDP Ratio
                                      Unemployment
A low/no growth scenario
                    How?
                     Macro demand and supply stabilized
                      (stable population and labour force)
                     Carbon price
                     Shorter work year
                     More generous anti-poverty programs
                                                              GDP per Capita



                                                             GHG Emissions
                        Unemployment




 Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio
Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario

1. Maximum sustainable global GDP:
    GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity
    Larger if carbon footprint reduced

2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita:
    Allow for increase in population

3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita:
    Some multiple of average GDP/capita

4. LowGrow simulation for Canada
Global biocapacity




Global ecological footprint



Carbon footprint
Global biocapacity




Global ecological footprint




Carbon footprint
                              Carbon footprint
                              for ecological footprint = biocapacity
[2004]


[1995]


[1976]


[1963]
[1976]
A Canadian degrowth scenario


             GDP per Capita

                              Unemployment

                                             Poverty
                                                       GHG Emissions


 Debt to GDP Ratio
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
Conclusions
1. Simulations suggest that prosperity does not require
   GDP growth

2. Depends on level of sustainable income which in
   part depends on response to climate crisis

3. Changes in the economic system require clarification
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?

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Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?

  • 1. Climate Change and the Economic Crisis: Is prosperity possible without growth? Dr. Peter A. Victor 26 March 2010
  • 2. Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth? LowGrow Canada
  • 3. You bet! LowGrow Canada
  • 4. Business as usual GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio Unemployment
  • 5. A low/no growth scenario How? Macro demand and supply stabilized (stable population and labour force) Carbon price Shorter work year More generous anti-poverty programs GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Unemployment Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio
  • 6. Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario 1. Maximum sustainable global GDP: GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity Larger if carbon footprint reduced 2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita: Allow for increase in population 3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita: Some multiple of average GDP/capita 4. LowGrow simulation for Canada
  • 7. Global biocapacity Global ecological footprint Carbon footprint
  • 8. Global biocapacity Global ecological footprint Carbon footprint Carbon footprint for ecological footprint = biocapacity
  • 11. A Canadian degrowth scenario GDP per Capita Unemployment Poverty GHG Emissions Debt to GDP Ratio
  • 15. The scenarios compared: growth drivers
  • 16. The scenarios compared: growth drivers
  • 17. Conclusions 1. Simulations suggest that prosperity does not require GDP growth 2. Depends on level of sustainable income which in part depends on response to climate crisis 3. Changes in the economic system require clarification