Vicious circle (Dec 2012)
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Roughly speaking, both US and Eurozone have been caught in the same structural negative feedback loop. However, EZ condition is much worse and complicated as there are green shoots in the US real economy, i.e. housing markets though sustainability is uncertain.
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FRB, ECBの政策のレビューとその影響、それと今日?明日の日銀政策決定会合のプレビューをする。
先ずFRBについて、
今回の追加緩和の内容についての説明は省くが、Press Conferenceの内容も踏まえて、なぜopen-endedなのかという点だけ確認しておきたい。
Bernanke議長は、今回の措置は、労働市場の改善を目的としている為、量的緩和の量と期限、その買入れ資産の種類も労働市場の改善状況次第で変わり得る、従って、量的緩和の内容に数値的な制限を設けることができないと述べている。つまり、「無制限に買う」ということが、これまでのQEより緩和度合いを強めたというよりも、状況次第でオペレーションを変えられる余地を拡大させた、というのが正しい解釈。
?今回の緩和策の影響を考えると、確かにセンチメントには大きなインパクトを与えたが、量的緩和と時間軸効果という政策手段と、低金利による投資と、資産効果による消費の需要を創出するという政策効果の波及チャネルは変わっていない。従って、将来の安定的な収入見通しが伴わない限り、持続的な需要創出は期待できないというframeworkも変わっていない。結局、金融政策は直接需要に働きかけることはできないし、貨幣面で見ると貨幣の流通速度や貨幣乗数はマネージできないということで、
要するに、Bernankeも認めている通り、この金融政策だけでは雇用問題は解決しないし、ファンダメンタルズは改善しないということ。
次にECBの国債買入れ策については、
① 重要なのは、国債買入れの為にはESMへの支援要請、つまり更なる緊縮財政が条件となり、ファンダメンタルズに与える影響
は、反ってネガティブになり得るということ。
② 一方、市場が好意的に捉えている要因はおそらく2つあって、①Merkelの強硬姿勢が軟化しており、非支援国の緊縮財政の緩和
や財政?政治統合が大きく進展する可能性があると見ていることと、②ESMとECBによる国債買入れが、実質的な財政統合になり得る、と見ていることと思われる。
③ しかし、来年の選挙を控えて、Merkelも強硬姿勢を維持せざるを得ず、また、ESMやECBの国債買入れについても、支援国の
負担を無尽蔵に増加させることはできない。
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米国のファンダメンタルズについて。
3月のFOMCから今月に発表された雇用統計まで、米国経済に対する見方が揺らいでいるが、ここで改めてレビューする。
米国経済については、よく言われているように、問題の根源は雇用と住宅。短期的な相場の動きはともかく（ランダムウォークなので分からないが）、長い目で見て、米国経済がどういう位置にあるのかを確認する上で、個人的に重要だと思っている指標を紹介する。
先ずは、雇用について。これは以前にも話したが、雇用統計では多くのデータが同時に発表されていて、中でも個人的に注目しているのは、ヘッドラインのNFPやU3の失業率ではなく、グラフに示した3つ
①Employment-Population Ratio 就業者／16歳以上の労働人口
②27週以上の長期失業者の比率
③パートタイムや一時雇用を失業者に含めるU6の失業率
内容は以前にも説明したので割愛するが、これらを見ると、2月と3月の数字に大きな違いはなく、雇用市場の方向性が3月に大きく悪化したわけではないと理解できる。「引続き、回復ペースは極めて緩慢な状況か、ほぼ横這い」と言える。
一方、住宅市場について。
Bernankeも、3月にビジネススクールで行われた4回シリーズの講義で、今回の金融危機のきっかけとして、住宅バブルの崩壊について、かなりの時間を割いて説明していたが、雇用と同じくらい、ファンダメンタルズに対する影響は大きく、その動向は金融政策決定の判断材料にもなる。
住宅市場に関する指標については色んな所から色んな指標が出ているが、ファンダメンタルズの方向性を見極める上で個人的に最重要と思うものを、3つ挙げておく。
①住宅価格
②住宅価格に先行する差押えを含む在庫状況
③新築住宅の着工あるいは販売
住宅価格の下落は、新たな借入れや借換えを困難にし、消費マインドを低下させ、企業収益の悪化、ひいては雇用環境を悪化させるというデフレスパイラルを生じさせている。
住宅価格で最も有名な指標はCase-Shillerだが、ここではCase-Shillerに3週間先行し、Fedも見ているCoreLogic社のデータ。実際、Bernankeが講義で引用していたのもこっち。これによれば、住宅価格は既にピークから34%低下しているが、直近でも前月比-0.8%と下げ続けている。
2つ目が、住宅価格の先行指標となる在庫状況だが、目に見える登録された在庫は減ってきている為、住宅価格は今年中に反転するという声も聞かれるが、実は数字に表れていないshadow inventoryと言われる、差押え手続きに入っていたり、その前段階にある90日以上の延滞物件が足元増えているので（1.6M）、これらを含めた在庫を消化し切るには未だ相当時間が掛かる。
最後に、新築住宅販売。Fedはよく住宅着工を使うが、ほぼ連動するので、今回は中古販売と比較する為に、新築住宅販売で見た。一般に、住宅売買の8割以上を占める中古住宅販売の方が注目度は高いが、特に今のような経済のターニングポイントを見極める上では、耐久財消費など副次的効果も含めて付加価値の大きい新築住宅の指標が有用と見ている。
状況は見ての通りで、住宅取得が進まないのは、雇用情勢と住宅価格の先行きに不透明感が強いことに加えて、住宅ローンの貸出基準が厳しくなっていることが大きな要因とされている。（尚、住宅販売は売買契Jobless Recovery (Dec 2011)
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The US GDP is released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with advance estimates published the month after the quarter ends, preliminary estimates two months after, and final estimates three months after. The annual GDP is revised each July. The document notes that the 2nd quarter 2011 advance US GDP estimate of 1.4% growth did not meet the consensus expectation of 1.9%, with personal consumption up just 0.1%. The preliminary 2nd quarter GDP of 1.0% also fell below consensus, as personal consumption rose 0.4%. Annual revisions lowered 1st quarter 2011 growth from 1.9% to 0.4% and 2009 declines from -2.6% to -3.5%, with 2008 revised fromRecently uploaded (20)
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? Sustainable Development: Integrating environmental considerations into economic planning, promoting renewable energy, and addressing climate change impacts.
? Industrial Diversification: Moving away from reliance on traditional sectors, fostering innovation, and promoting value-added manufacturing.
? Human Capital Development: Investing in education, healthcare, and skills training to enhance productivity and competitiveness.
? Fiscal Reforms: Expanding the tax base, improving tax administration, and reducing reliance on external debt.
? Agricultural Transformation: Promoting sustainable agriculture, improving land management, and enhancing food security.
? Energy Security: Diversifying energy sources, promoting renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency.
? Regional Cooperation: Strengthening trade and economic ties with neighboring countries.
? Governance Reforms: Enhancing transparency, accountability, and citizen participation in economic decision-making.
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- 1. Vicious Cycle (US and Eurozone) Both economies are still suffering from the Great Recession, but US: Modest recovery driven by rebound in housing market EZ: Double-dip recession (esp. peripheral states such as Spain, in which u_rate is 25%) Much Worse d Real Economy shol e Thre n U_rat o Political deadlock FRB Helicopter Ben Loans decrease US: Fiscal cliff Fiscal austerity EZ: Brinkmanship Q E among members (Germany vs South etc.) Loans default Taxes decrease Much complicated Bailout costs Government Fiscal Financial Sectors Condition Losses on Gov Bonds L T R Both US and EZ have suffered from sluggish recovery, fiscal O O austerity and political deadlocks. And central banks have solely M T ECB prevented economies from collapsing. Super Mario However, the economic and political condition in EZ is much worse than those in the US.