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Does "pork" attract voter?: Evidence from Survey Experiment
- 1. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Does ‘Pork’ Attract Voter? : Evidence from Survey Experiment HATA Masaki Doctoral Candidate of Political Science, Graduate School of Law, Kobe University. hachuchun@me.com Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II at Kobe University June 17th (Wed), 2015 Introduction ○ ? Previous Review ? ? Experimental Design ? ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 2. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ What is ‘Pork’ ? ↓ Pork Introduction ● ? Previous Review ? ? Experimental Design ? ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 3. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Puzzle and Research Question ? Research Question ? Which information about “profit” or “loss” more increases voter's attention toward political world? ? Lost Two Decades in Japan (Ushinawareta 20-nen) ? A deep recession in Japan since 1993. ? Japanese politician can’t provide political-inducements, -pork-, for electorate. ? Recently, Japanese voter often does not be given pork, but lost or cost from government. (c.f.) a tax increasing; rise in unemployment rate; declining pension coverage Introduction ● ● Previous Review ? ? Experimental Design ? ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 4. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ How voter recognize economics conditions? ? When we vote, we consider… (Fiorina 1981; Kinder & Kiewiet 1981; Lewis-Beck et al., 2000) ? Sociotoropic : GDP, an unemployment rate ? Pocketbook : one’s annual income, personal tax rate ? Empirically, Sociotoropic voter > Pocketbook voter (Choi & Park 2011; Kla?nja & Tucker 2012; Silver 2014) ? In Japan, many of voters consider pocketbook, acco-rding to survey data in 1993（Kobayashi 1993, Hirano 1998) . ? However, the number of sociotropic voters in Japan has been on the increase after 1994(Ikeda 2000, Nakamura 2003). → Why ? Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ? Experimental Design ? ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 5. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○
- 6. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Limitation in previous research ? Theoretically; ? Focus on relation between political awareness and a side of “profit” ? However, Japanese politicians have less recourse to distribute pork to electorate. If anything, Japanese are increasing some costs. (i.e.) increasing a consumption tax from 5% to 8% → focus on information not only positive but negative ? Empirically; ? The lack of causal inference ? Multivariate regression is limited on making causality clear. → This research employs an experimental method Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ? ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 7. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Experimental Design(1) ? A political opinion survey among Japanese people ? Type: Internet method (Nikkei Research Inc.) ? Terms: July 23rd to 28th, 2014. ? A sample: 1788 respondents, age 20 or older ? Stratified sampling fit for Japan Census ? Survey experimental method ? random assignment for each experimental group using computer randomization ? removed satisficer who watched screen under 10s. ? different conditioning for 5 experiment groups Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ● ? ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 8. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Experimental Design (2) Leading Sentence Group1: Socio + Positive If the project is initiated, the market will face excessive supply of money, driving the recovery of the Japanese economy. Moreover, tax income is expected to increase and national financial state to improve due to increase in GDP. Group2: Pocket + Positive If the project is initiated, the market will face excessive supply of money. Individual financial state is also expected to improve. Income and wages will increase for households to enjoy. Currently the Japanese government is considering initiation of a 200 trillion yen- worth public project all over Japan. The goal of the project is to create an infrast- ructure to cope with natural disasters such as earthquakes and Tsunamis. Please try to remember the details of the contents while watching a made-up news clip. Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ● ● ? Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 9. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Experimental Design (3) Group3: Socio + Negative Issuance of government bonds is expected with the initiation of the project as means of funding. This will lead to the aggravation of Japan's financial state. Furthermore, the increase in Jap- an's debt will result in extens-ive budget deficit, increasing the risk of national default. Group4: Pocket + Negative Issuance of government bonds is expected with the initiation of the project as means of funding. This will lead to the aggravation of individual financial state. Furthermore, income and wage decrease and tax raise can be expected, leaving households worse off than present. Question Upon watching the news, how much have you come to take some interest in political issues? 1 … 2 … 3 … 4 … 5 … 6 … 7 (Likert scale) Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ● ● ● Empirical result ○ Conclusion ?
- 10. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Empirical Result Red bar if p < .05 compare with control group Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ● ● ● Empirical result ● Conclusion ? 4.58 4.33 5.19 5.34 4.44 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Group1 Socio*Posi (N=140) Group2 Pocket*Posi (N=153) Group3 Socio*Nega (N=148) Group4 Pocket*Nega (N=153) Group5 Control (N=132)
- 11. HATA Masaki Kobe Political Communications Research Workshop II 2015 はじめに 先行研究の整理?検討 理論と仮説 実証分析 結論と含意 参考文献 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ? What information attract voters? ? Simple effect of sociotropic or pocketbook are NOT. ? Negative information has effect on increase in political interest. ? Group3(Socio*Nega) increased 0.75 points than control group significantly. ? Group4(Pocket*Nega) increased 0.89 points than control group significantly. ? Implication ? Political benefit(pork) no longer has effect on rousing political interest in Japan. ? Voters are unaware of “positive” outcome even if politician or governmental party success their economic policy. Conclusion Introduction ● ● Previous Review ● ● Experimental Design ● ● ● Empirical result ● Conclusion ●